There’s an interesting and thought provoking post from Andrew Page at Scottish Liberal. It is his analysis of Nick Clegg’s speech to what
they somewhat strangely call the Federal Conference.
When it comes to matter Libdem, I think Andrew presents the
most balanced views, praising what is praiseworthy, and debunking that which is
not (although I also have huge admiration for George Potter and his uphill struggle to make sure that the Liberals, as a party, do the right thing by the sick and disabled, so big shout out to George here too). Anyway, if you want to know what
ACTUALLY happened in Brighton, this is the article for the leader’s speech and there is another one on
the SOS's and Willie Rennie's.
Coming back to this post, I was a bit concerned about Andrew’s
observation that:
"Clegg hopes to convince voters that, with slow but
sure signs of improvement, it would be wrong to trust Labour with the economy
in 2015."
Because, from what I can see at the moment, that would
probably mean a Tory government in 2015, and for all my criticism of what the
Liberals have contributed to the current Westminster set up, I have to say
that, rather like the Labour-Liberal coalitions of the Scottish parliament, the
best stuff has been Liberal sourced (excepting Danny Alexander’s scheme to tax
North Sea exploration).
But I cannot help but think that the Liberals will emerge as
a very much reduced force in 2015, (unless Clegg can pull a rabbit out of his
hat) and even if they were needed to provide a coalition partner for the
Tories, whether under Cameron or Boris, their influence could only be very
slight, much less than today.
The only thing that could possibly reverse the Liberals'
fortune would be a real turn around in economic conditions and a consequent
real and measurable improvement in people's standards of living. (Even at that
I’m sure that Osborne would try to take any credit going for that to re-launch
his campaign to replace Cameron.)
I don't see that happening in the next two years, and in any
case, Cameron has made it clear that even when(if) things get better there will
be no return to higher levels of public spending (suggesting that the cuts are
more ideologically than economically driven). So, although things may get
better, the likes of you and I won’t feel it.
Of course, my response to all of this is that with some luck
and a lot of hard work, none of this will be our problem, and what we should be
thinking about is which one(s) of the party leaders would be best to deal with
when it comes to negotiations with the Scottish government.
If it is a Tory only government I suspect that they might
not even have one MP here, and I’m not sure who will be left from the Liberals,
but perhaps they would not feel it necessary in these cases to have a Scottish
Secretary.
I guess Boris, just because he’s a prickly sort of person,
would be the most difficult to negotiate with (although, given that he has told
people often enough that Scotland is such a drain on the UK, he would surely be
pleased to see the back of us).
Anyone else any thoughts on that?