Friday 8 May 2015

RAMBLINGS ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT... PART 1

So... We did not badly last night, did we?

I was far too pessimistic, as ever. I just couldn't believe that it was even possible for us to get over 50 seats. I couldn't conceive that Labour, which had ruled Scotland since forever, would melt even more quickly than the Tories did after Thatcher laid waste to the country.

But damned hard work from the SNP, from Nicola Sturgeon, who never stopped, to the candidates, who were out day and night, tweeting and meeting, to folk going round chapping doors, putting leaflets through letter boxes, putting posters up in windows and gardens...and yes, Munguin, blogging, secured an unimaginable (at least to me) victory.

And now the work starts.

First let's kill dead the Labour narrative that if Scotland had only just voted Labour as usual, like it's supposed to do, we would have had a Labour government. 

We wouldn't. 

If every single seat in Scotland had sent a Labour MP to Westminster, we would still have had a Tory government. 

Currently the Tories have 325 seats; Labour 229. If the 58 seats in Scotland which did not vote Labour had done so, they would have had 287 seats and the Tories would have had 324. (Check my arithmetic. I only had about an hour's fitful sleep.)

Because the English voted Tory, like the English almost invariably do, we have a Tory government.

So leaving that behind, what went right for the SNP was that they worked hard for sure, but they also had a positive message about Scotland and about the future. And that wasn't anything to do with independence. No matter what Jim and Kez were saying.

It was about getting us what we were promised.

Gordon Brown, in partnership with David Cameron, and with Miliband and Clegg in tow, made us promises in September when they thought we were going to vote for independence. Enough of us bought these promises at face value, for Gordon to be able to claim to have saved the union, just like he'd saved the bankers, and the world, and just about the whole of civilisation, only 5 years earlier.

But the next day the promises started to fall apart. Cameron had pulled off a coup and got Gordon to sell us something that wasn't quite what it seemed.

On the day after we voted NO, thanks to promises of the best devolution in the universe, Cameron, like the sneaky little Eton boy he is, put in terms and conditions that Labour would NEVER have agreed to. 

English Votes for English Laws (EVEL), which he insisted must be a part of any improved devolution for Scotland, would mean that, effectively, Labour would never be the government of England again. Even if it won a general election depending on seats form Scotland and Wales, it would never control votes on English matters. 

In fact, it wouldn't be worth voting Labour in England, because the Tories would control everything that they proposed on English matters. And that is a large chunk of the Westminster timetable, comprising a vast spend. Why would Washington, Berlin, Paris or Beijing be interested in a government that didn't control a vast part of its territory and its laws?

Anyway, what did Gordon do about all this deceit? He fumed a little, probably smashed a few Nokias off the wall, then took off on his international jet setting and left us to stew, picking up his salary whilst being an ex-politician.

Seeing that the Clunking Fist and of course, his deadly enemy Alistair Darling, had nothing to say about the duplicity, Cameron reckoned a green light had been shown and carried on going back on much of what Brown had promised on his behalf.

[It's interesting that the Prime Minister of "our" United Kingdom, had been obliged to get Brown to deliver his promises because of his own unpopularity in Scotland. Nor was he able to send his deputy, or his Secretary of State. In fact he couldnt even ask the leader of the opposition. They were all seen as too unpopular.]

The Smith Commission was duly set up. But now Labour didn't want to devolve much to Scotland, because whatever was devolved to Scotland would be effectively devolved to England, and outwith their control.

Then when a very watered down Smith Commission reported, it reported not to the people of Scotland, but to a largely English Tory and Liberal Cabinet, which pulled it to pieces.

Some of what had been promised was simply not allowed because it offended Iain Duncan Smith or Theresa May; some of it turned out to be illegal anyway, like the setting in stone of the Edinburgh parliament.

No one stood up for Scotland except the SNP and the Greens. But in London we had no power. Six MPs isn't exactly a formidable block.

So we did something about that.

To be continued....

45 comments:

  1. Tris

    As I said in my last, and it's only day one I know, the SNP need to be careful but also deliver. I've made no secret that I am a reluctant member and not convinced by some in the party and even some of the newly elected. They will have to be careful not to fall into the traps that Labour fell into every day, interesting times. I still feel we have a lot to fear though.

    Bruce

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    1. That's why "auld heids", like Salmond, being there to advise the new MPs is so important; they've not making it up as they go along, this would have been accounted for.

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    2. I understand what you are saying Bruce.

      With the job comes responsibility.

      Of course as 56 MPs in a chamber of 650, there will be a limitation to what can be done, but SNP MPS must always been seen to be fighting for the end to this idiotic programme of austerity for the sake of austerity.

      The must be loud and clear in that. At the same time, you don't change the daft ways of Westminster simply by barging through them. These things must be done with care. As Jim says, there are plenty of experienced people there... Angus, Stewart, Eck, etc, who will take them under their wings and help them along.

      I don't think you readily cross Nicola adn let the party down.

      I think these are exciting times.

      I'm happy too that the management is so competent.

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  2. Dafydd WilliamsMay 08, 2015 4:19 pm

    Congratulations to all in the SNP. We in Wales hope we can at some time catch up with Scotland.

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    1. Dafydd, you have now to take us as an example and use our success to get it for yourself. Labour has to be destroyed though and sadly I think there are still people in Wales who think they have their interests at heart. they don't they never have had well not since they were taken over by the middle classes after the first world war.

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    2. Thanks Dafydd.

      I was sorry that not more Plaid MPs were elected, but I know that the ones that are there will be welcomes into the progressive group in Westminster, along with the Greens.

      Hopefully we can make a difference, and one day, maybe even at the next election, if the SNP do a good job, Wales will be encouraged to vote for progress.

      Diolch i chi am eich dymuniadau da

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  3. Yes Munguin give yourself a pat on the back,because you and others like yo played a very important roll you kept us informed....well done

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    1. Agreed.

      Still cannot believe the victories and the majorities all over Scotland.

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    2. LOL Don't Anon. He's patted himself that much on the back he's worn a hole in his fur!!

      But thanks for you kind words.

      Likewise Marcia.

      I'm still pinching myself at both the number and size of the victories.

      But believe it, because unlikely as it is, it's true.

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  4. Agree with Bruce's comment about the new MPs being careful. One or two have previously attracted the wrong sort of attention ( due to their own actions). Now they have to deliver.

    The SNP secured 50% of the vote, which is a remarkable achievement. But the country is still divided and needs to brought together. That takes time. What we don't need is a few SNP MPs to start wittering on about UDI or a referendum next week or whatever. Get settled into Westminster, get onto the committees because that is where the SNP can have a major impact. If you've ever taken time to watch some of them you'll understand where I'm coming from. The media will be watching like hawks, so expect a couple of slips in the next few months.

    Good work with the blog by the way. Good to see a pro-independence blog that allows lively debate without getting all silly.

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    1. I agree with you and I hope they are all careful. We have one Labour MP because of an artificial rammy on social media, we do not want anybody making the news. I would say that given that the Establishment does not want them their they will have a hard row to plough. So let us wish them well and hope that the older heads will keep the younger ones steady.

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    2. Completely agree with you Anon. The more MPs you have, the more chance of foot in mouth disease.

      Some of them are young and it's a huge responsibility. Westminster must seem a terribly intimidating place.

      They will be watching like a hawk. I suspect there will be much antagonism towards the interloping Scots coming down to their parliament taking their seats.

      People must learn not to rise to the bate.

      Pete Wishart, an experienced MP of course, tells of Jim Murphy, no longer there of course, screaming obscenities at him on, I think two separate occasions in the lobbies.

      I'm pretty sure the experienced 6 (including the deputy leader and the ex-leader, will be there to watch over the beginners till they find their feet.

      I know if I went there I'd want to scream at the stupidity and time wasting of some of the procedures, burt there are more important things to change than the rituals of the ancient English parliament. The queen, the pomp, the silly costumes and wigs and britches, amuse them.

      Yes, it would be good to get rid of that and get on with the work, but there are more important things to worry about.

      Thanks for your praise. I think that the fact it doesn't (usually) get silly, is less to do with me and more to do with the high standard of comments we get from a high qquality readership :)

      Totally agree Helena. And I'm sure there will be the odd thing. But as I say, we got some really great experienced people down there. I'm sure it will be good.


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  5. Ramblings indeed....

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    1. I'm well known for my ramblings...

      :)

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  6. Conspiracy theory time.....and I usually ignore them. But had this thought spinning in my head for several weeks. Bear in mind I got less than 3 hours sleep last night.

    Could it just be possible that the SNP and Tories secretly set up Labour? After all, everyone knew the Lib Dems were toast regardless how every other party did. So the best solution for both parties would be to control their own areas and set up some legislation (EVEL, FAA etc) in order to screw Labour. The Labour Party shafts the country every time they gain power, knowing full well that the Tories will sort out the mess, but losing out on votes as a result. The Labour comes back in and starts the cycle again.

    Having the SNP ruling Scotland with FAA and Tories concentrating on the rest of the UK, while sharing defence and foreign affairs, will provide a far more stable platform to try and sort out the economic mess the country is still in. Although the Tories have a majority, the SNP has a powerful enough bloc to rein some of the policies in.

    Total conspiracy I know, and possibly a lot of bollocks, but politics behind closed doors is a totally different ball game.

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    1. Well... who knows Anon.

      I think it's unlikely, but I can't really justify that. Gut feeling i guess.

      I guess I think Nicola is simply too grounded to risk that sort of thing.

      But in any case, it took the public to vote, and vote massively for the SNP. Even Eton boys can't arrange that kind of thing!!

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  7. yeah the newbies snp MPs best be careful just like the
    Camergoon MPs.....now they will have to deliver and blaming
    the last Labour Government only has a limited shelf life.


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    1. Well, as I've said, I agree that they will have to behave, and I'm relatively sure that they will, not because I know them, but because I'm pretty sure that you don;t cross Alex, Stewart or Angus, and you don't let the side down, or you'll be in trouble.

      Of course initially you can blame the last government for things, and that's as it should be. But I agree, it gets old after a short time.

      However, they are going to be in opposition, and if they are going to blame the last government it was a Liberal/Tory one.

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  8. yeah and what gets me is the shy torys so they say
    wot in a private poll online or over someones private
    telephone......nope

    the Torys just said him that one over there he is to blame
    look at him weak poor spassy unable to look after himself
    let make him feel all the pain the wimp.

    and voters said yeah good idea lets I will vote for that

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    1. What on earth are you burbling on about Niko?

      Have you been on the wine gums?

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    2. He's been reading the UKIP manifesto.

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    3. Och that would explain everything.

      Go lie down Niko. You'll feel better in a week or so.

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    4. Naw, must have been the Green Party or Socialist Labour Party (I did, good god almighty makes North Korean policies the epitome of liberalism).

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  9. From Nicola:

    Dear Munguin,

    Thank you!

    What a night it has been.

    My thanks to each and every one of you for your support over this campaign. The result last night is not because of what the SNP leadership has done. It is down to you. Every conversation you have had, every leaflet you have delivered and every door you have chapped.

    My congratulations to our 56 SNP MPs and my thanks to the strong campaigns we ran in the 3 seats we did not win.

    You made your voice heard and we will make Scotland's voice is heard at Westminster. With the Tories back in No.10 it is more important than ever that we have a strong team of MPs to stand up for Scotland.

    So what next? Now that you have helped us to reach a historic number of MPs, do you know of people who voted SNP last night but have not joined yet? If you do then forward this e-mail on to them and ask them to be part of the next stage of our journey – the elections to the Scottish Parliament in May 2016 - www.joinus.scot

    For now, thank you once again for all your work.


    Nicola Sturgeon

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    1. Bloody hell!

      I love you guys and now you get that amount of praise! From our dear leader no less.

      I thought I was talking into a vacuum!

      I will be more respectful of the Munguin Empire in future ;-)

      Cuddly-toys-are-us.

      Amazing that Nichola took the time out to recognise the absolutely brilliant job you have done.

      Much repect.

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  10. Apparently there is this thing called 'Facebook' where my daughter posted early this morning that her drunken dad kept her awake all night, shouting with joy at the TV.

    GIRFUY "We won't lose a single seat" Murphy.

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    1. Yes yes... we've heard of that. It's something to do with this interweb thing that everyone talks about so much.

      It was a good night though.

      Please someone tell me who is paying Murphy if he stays on as leader of the Scottish branch?

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    2. Good point Tris. I don't think he'll be doing it from the goodness of his little black carbonized heart...

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    3. I tweeted him with the question, but he didn't answer and I'll probably be blocked.

      We have the right to know if his salary and expense come out of taxpayers' money.

      Labour doesn't have any.

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  11. I’m quite happy with the result although having a 20 year old elected does concern me. Much prefer politicians to have had some work experience. Of course there was a lot of tactical voting to get rid of Labour but, if we did have the FPTP system still in Scotland, the result would have been very different.

    All in all though I think having the Tories in No 10 will let the Scots see the big picture. Interesting times indeed.

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    1. Hi SR.

      I see that Douglas Carswell is making (quite rightly) a big thing of the fact that FPTP served UKIP badly. With 4 million votes across the UK they got 1 MP. With under 2 million the SNP got 56 MPs.

      This situation is surely ridiculous, as Liberal and SNP and other smaller parties have known for years.

      Yet the two big UK parties, which it has served well, have been reluctant to change it.

      I often wondered why Blair, the arch control freak allowed there to be PR in the Scottish, Welsh and Irish parliaments.

      Interesting indeed. Wee lassie with a tin helmet? You bet!

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    2. Subrosa this will show her as a very capable young women who will take no prisoners http://livestream.com/IndependenceLive/JimSillars

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  12. Congratulations, fellow malcontents and whingers, on giving "Scottish" unionist parties a richly deserved bloody nose. It was Munguin wot wun it! It is to be hoped that Murphy, Curran, Davidson, Bain, the Alexander brothers etc etc have put a few bob aside for a rainy day whilst they wait for ATOS to decide whether they are employable or not. I suspect that even ATOS will decide that they are not. Seriously interesting times indeed!.

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    1. Ha ha John,

      Munguin is purring!

      I should say that if he is ever elected President of Scotland you have a good chance of an OMP (Order of Munguin's Pleasure), possibly even 2nd class!.

      The thing about the big names is that they will be found jobs in something or other. I mean did you ever know any of their top people whom they couldn't squeeze in somehow?

      It will be interesting to see what they do with Bain, right enough. That should stretch even the most cunning of their functionaries.

      Lady Margaret of Southside, anyone?

      I'll look forward to Ed's resignation list, where people that the Scottish public roundly rejected are given honours for being so poor at their job that they got the sack!

      British politics for you.

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  13. Come on, Folks. We picking up wir new M.P.'s before they fallen. Let's gae them the benefit o' the doubt. ..........Ronnie.

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    1. You know what, Ronnie. Yer bang on there. These people worked tirelessly to get themselves elected. I can't imagine how much street pounding they have done, meetings they have attended and photographs they have posed for.

      So yeah... I know we're Scottish so we're always wary of over celebrating success... but, as I say, you're right.

      Let's do it.

      :)

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    2. "So yeah... I know we're Scottish..." An it's a rare feelin, ain't it?........Ronnie.

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    3. Yeah, it's not a bad feeling at all, Ronnie, and particularly at a time like this when we have joined together to assert it.

      I feel the same as I did at the rallies last year.

      Pumped.

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  14. I think Douglas Alexander should be given credit for the gracious way he accepted defeat. One or two others were nasty buggers. And Mhairi Clark must have annoyed some elements of the media, who must have been expecting a rant, given her comments a wee while back. The speech she gave showed a degree of maturity rarely seen in a 20 year old. She'll be under immense pressure as she is the youngest MP for some 350 years (?).

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    1. Yes, Anon, Dougie did do that graciously. It must have been hard for him. BHe certainly could n't have been expecting it, and it is a very public humiliation.

      Maybe Douglas was bright enough to see that you only compound the humiliation if you take it like a spoiled child.

      I didn't watch any of it, being a licence protest person (who also obeys the law). I went between what turned out to be live blogging of a sort on here, and my Twitter feed, and I heard that some people were very much less than gracious.

      Actually, Mhairi gave quite a mature and responsible interview on radio the other day. I hope she will do well.

      I heard the youngest since the 19th century, but I guess it could be longer.

      If I remember both David Steele and Charlie Kennedy were MPs in their middle 20s.

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  15. First things first.

    Thank you Munguin, Tris and the commenters for the information, support and belief that gave us the courage to finally nail SLAB's arse to the door. They are nothing now. A minority in a sea of yellow.

    Sept 19th was so painfull. I doubt i am over it still. But today sees us all united. We done the impossible and we have only just got started. We have the finest mp's anywhere and the drive to finally bring Independence to Scotland. 56 mp's says it all no matter how they try and spin things. Interesting times ahead for us Tris.

    England ???? My family and friends down there are in shock. 5 more years of cruelty and the distruction of social security and the English NHS. My sympathy is with them but now we concentrate on Scotland. England once again has voted in a tory govt and are now blaming the Scots for the poor show down south.

    Always looking to pass the blame to someone else eh ??? We screamed for them to join a progressive group and they vote troy.

    Tough luck . It's a formality now Tris. 100,000 SNP members will now push hard for another referendum . No way are we going to stomach a tory govt here. The baloons burst. Poor Wales too although they gained three seats (Big thumbs up). They now have start. Every journey no matter how long begins with a step. The rest follows.

    2016 SE will have a YES campaign. Late 2016 Independence.

    Thanks again for the blog folks. keeping us informed and knowing there are folk out there likeminded is a real boost. Still trying to sober up from yesterday. best hangover ever Tris.

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    1. LOL, Richy, I reckon there are a good few who will be in the same boat.

      I've got a mate from London who is a staunch Labour supporter, and activist in his part of London. He is utterly gutted and not a little frightened at the thought of another 5 years of Tories... and with nothing to protect services, as we have.

      There was no hint of blame to Scotland in what he had to say to me. He just wished that they had something like the SNP that they could vote for.

      He despairs of the right wing of the Labour Party down there. Reckons that Andy Burnham or Chuka Umunna will be the next leader. Cooper being too dull.

      But none of that will save the English from another 5 years of the Tories.

      I'll be guided by Nicola as to when is the best time to go for another referendum. If we go too soon and loose, it would really mean another generation before we could have one.

      But I think that there is a possibility that the English will vote to come out of the EU, regardless of the job losses that will follow, and the demographic and skills deficit we will suffer, and Scotland is more dependent on EU jobs. I doubt we can afford to exit, and I dont think that there is much likelihood that we will vote for it. (UKIP votes in Scotland are tiny compared to those in England.)

      It's a red line, and one where interestingly, we could find political parties united.

      If England votes to come out, and Scotland votes to stay in, and Nicola demands a referendum in Scotland on which way we go, it will be hard for what's left of the Labour Party, the Tories and the Liberals to campaign for going with England against Europe, specially if they have just campaigned for staying in Europe.

      But I see our own country very close, and even Cameron must be able to see the incongruity of a Tory England and SNP Scotland, and the potential for further problems unless he does something concrete.

      Anyway... Let's toast our new MPs and drink to their success and that of our country. And another wee one to the eventual dissolution of the Treaty of Union.

      Hic....

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    2. II don't see any chance of a Referendum until after 2020. Although the SNP won a huge number of seats, it only represented 50% of the vote. That in itself is an achievement, but it shows there is still a lot of work to be done. I'm sure that there are cool heads in the leadership who recognise this and will be planning the next step of the strategy.

      There is a marked difference between a Referendum and a General Election. Let's things into perspective before charging ahead.

      Oh, and the media's already trying to find conflict. They asked Salmond if he will now lead the Westminster contingent. He blew that one away. Be plenty more of that to follow.

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