Stuart did a really good post on that subject the other day.
The situation has changed materially and they have changed their views, along with a lot of other people... or they have made a business decision that it's unwise to sell a view that is not shared by the majority of your potential customers.
Two things, 1) What makes you think the UK parliament will permit it, particularly as you have to ask and there's a great deal of uncertainty going on as well as some no doubt protracted negotiations and a side show like Scotland will be a distraction? 2) If France, Holland, Italy, Spain et al have their own referenda and choose to leave the EU (and they are currently a lot more EUskeptic than the English) do you honestly think that the EU is a wise place to hang your hat upon?
As did the people of Rhodesia. Like it or lump it, the Scottish Parliament devolves its power from the UK one, that's where its legitimacy comes from. Have as many referenda as you like, the world will not accept them as legitimate.
Get off your knees QM. The people are sovereign in Scotland. We will have a referendum and if they don't accept that in the south, tough.
Rhodesia is a poor choice. Pick oe of the other dodens of countries that left the Empire. We get the answer right, we leave.
And seeing as they are so keen to quote pronouncements of former politicians, Mrs Thatcher reckoned the Scots should elect a majority of their MP's as nationalists to go. We have 56. It is really our right to secede without a referendum.
Am always dubious regarding statements like "the world will not accept them as legitimate" which raises obvious questions like "What do you mean by the world" and "How do you know this - do you have any evidence to back up this statement"? One thing I do know is that nothing would make independence more certain than Westminster telling Scots that they could not have a referendum or if they did that Westminster would not accept the result.
If we're looking for an internationally recognized country that left the empire without any goodwill from Westminster, why don't we just pick out the elephant in the room - the USA?
Hello QM. Long time no see. How are you, and how is New Zealand?
I think that despite all the crap from Boris about refusing a second referendum, it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do. There may be a referendum in Northern Ireland too. Indeed Gibraltar too.
They lie during campaigns. Nigel Farage promised (I'm not sure on what authority) that all the money that was sent to the EU would be used in the failing NHS. (I expect that someone must have died and they made him Prime Minister or some sort of smoking drunken Viceroy.) Within minutes of declaring a National Independence Day, however, Nigel had denied that he had said it.
One of the main planks of the Better Together campaign from all the main parties was that the only way Scotland could remain in the EU was to vote NO to independence. They lied. 62% to 38% is a reasonable majority of us who want to stay.
We were told that a poxy little place like Scotland wouldn't be able to afford private pensions, but I see from the Herald (unionist) leader above that pension pots are in danger outside the EU.
They lied and they lied...
I'm not sure that other countries will have referenda. Once they see what's happened here it may put people off.
There may be some changes made, and god knows the EU needs them, but we have to hang our hat somewhere, and I'd rather be with Sweden, than with England.
I agree, Conan. We're in uncharted territory here, but it would certainly throw cats amongst pigeons for a posh Eton boy to tell us that we had to do what HE said instead of what our parliament had voted for.
Outcome a resignation of the government and Ruth Davidson takes over as first minister.
Yep SA. Of course, just because Thatcher said it, it doesn't make it law, but as Boris and his ilk worship at her shrine, I suspect he would have to take that into consideration.
It will be interesting to see how, once the news has sunk in, our parliament reacts. Will there be rebels on the Labour benches who go for another referendum... or will they all tow Boris's line.
But it's hard to see how the UN would turn down the result of a Scottish referendum that clearly demanded independence.
Anyway, Boris (or whoever else it is... Wee Govey the House Elf maybe... Oh stop, I can't take any more!) will bluster and tell us it's out of the question, but with the weight of parliament behind her Nicola is a match for any of them.
Westminster will grant permission, and if they don't I expect that folk will just say "Yes Boris, whatever you say Boris"... or not.
LOL Illy, we don;t want a war of independence and the Brits burning down Bute House... On the other hand, as you say, it didn't work out too badly for the Americans...
I saw that this morning. Cameron thinks that because he's very rich and went to Eton and oxford he can wait around till the Tories have a new leader.
No.
Turmoil in the markets may not affect people who have their money in the BVI, but many don't and the EU wants to start withdrawal negotiations as quickly as possible.
Apparently (according to something I half heard on teh radio news today) a retired civil servant (at the "Sir" level) has said that they don't have nearly enough civil servants with knowledge or experience of international treaties to negotiate withdrawal. They will need, I heard, a least 200, and they have about 10 (although I was half asleep and these figures may not be exact).
Still, while we are still in the single market they can get some Europeans across to do it for them.
Well stretching it a bit, the Daily Record is a major newspaper. It may not do detailed analysis particularly well, but it splashes its opinions in big letters on the front page, and that is what most people see in supermarkets these days.
Looking at the editorial from the Herald, it appears that it may be a potential ally.
And labour could win back some of its traditional support by taking the feelings of sizeable proportion of the population on board.
Personally I don't give a monkey's what msm says but too many folk last time who wanted to vote yes in their hearts were put off because of the wall of media advocating No and tearing strips of any Yes argument whilst giving No a free ride.
One of the reasons Brexit won was because MSM was divided on the subject. If indy2 consists of more than one Sunday paper supporting Yes than I'll be applying for a Scottish passport in the nearish future.
And as for your comment in previous thread about MR running its course, don't you DARE stop the blog. Even if only Soppy Sunday remains. If you stop I will hunt you down and "persuade" you to continue :-)
Munguin and I are going to Hungary in August and i was just checking up that we had our EU health cards. I was reminded that if we didn't have them we would need to purchase some sort of insurance or pay at the hospital if anything happened.
No thanks (to borrow a phrase from the UKOKers.
You're a scary panda, PP.
I've been struggling to find stuff to write about recently... and a few times when I have found something, I've got half way through it and found that Stuart or someone else has covered it better.
But I'm feeling a little more motivated now adn I suspect that in the weeks and months to come there will be a great deal on interesting stuff going on.
The magazine content is very good here. I love soppy sunday too.
If you don't think you have enough political content you can offer us insights into the lives of minor celebrities. Stories on the psychology of a troll. Features about shops or fashion tips. Where does Nicola get her shoes, which impartial journalist is staying at Jack's villa? The list is endless.
Just you stay here until this fight is over. We are in the endgame now. If we are not free by 2021 we will never be. We need sites like this.
Hi Tris, New Zealand is wonderful, I'm pretty sure you'll get your referendum, however if you're going to do it you need to follow the rules, even then, beware, there's currently a petition out there to call a second EU referendum because some London luvvies didn't like the result of the first and want to change the rules. Any miscalculation or short-cut will cause problems for you, so do it properly, just be aware that the 'establishment' will be distracted and might tell you to wait your turn. Your best bet for independence however might just be to hold the referenda in England and ask them if they want to keep you ;-)
I think that everyone has pretty much agreed that the only leader in the Uk that is dealing with this sensibly is Nicola. I'm sure that some other politicians are talking some sort of scene, but we're talking amongst the top folk...the rest of them are crap.
Nicola is taking it slow, becasue no one knows what may happen... There are no rules for this.
This time,big money will back Scotland remaining in the EU (possibly even the CBI in Scotland) and that can probably only be achieved by Scottish independence. I expect the efforts from HM government in London to undermine the EU to intensify as they strive to convince Scots that they are Better Together with England than with a bunch of foreigners. Interesting that many No voters in our referendum are now beginning to realise that it was really all about democracy or rather the lack of. Perhaps the real issues will get a proper airing this time around.
With 62% of the (voting) population wanting to remain, I thing that the papers will join in. Business, or at lest a lot of business, will be scared to death of losing the market of 500 million Europeans.
I doubt that the EU will be overly generous, if for no other reason "pour encourager les autres". Give the UK a good deal and you could lose France!!
A bigger percentage of the population will be behind the campaign.
They removed the right to vote from all Europeans except irish (odd) adn of course because it's based on an outdated Westminster system, 16-18s couldn't vote.. but in all statistical likelihood would have voted Remain.
It's all too early and still raw as it was in Sep 14. The EU are pissed off and frightened about what this all means. The majority of Scots are pissed off as they are being forced into something again that has been rejected in Scotland. The media are complicit in the whole mess and therefor don't count, they will get zero understanding from myself. The other thing is I would not write off the UK so readily or that EU membership is a given. So it is take a breath time, a step back, talk to the EU once the dust settles, speak to the voters, build a mandate and then move. I do know one thing, if we are able to join it will be the euro as the currency and they better get that into their heads now and start selling the idea to people.
Nicola is already talking to the EU. They want it settled quickly. I agree that they are worried oo, so the UK will be unlikely to get a sympathetic hearing, given that that would "encourager les autres!
Cameron wants to take it nice and slow...
But the EU want it settled, so we have to be in quick, as do any other countries or places. (Gibraltar, NI, and the strange situation of London.)
Apologies for not commenting more than I have had. In the midst of observing the fast (it is about to end, ten more days) and busy with the plantation.
Some observations post-Brexit:
1. I correctly called for the result during a discussion with my friend the political theorist. He was saying it might be close in favour of remain. I told him of Scot Goes Pop poll tracking and (the clincher) John Harris' clip from the Guardian. Kippers and Tories will definitely vote for Leave but it is the Labour (North) that will swing. That they duly did.
2. Brexit was the material change in circumstances and Indyref2 will instituted. With or without the permission from Westminster. There is a good chance we will clinch it and by god Scotland could very well be independent when I set my foot again there.
3. The question is timing. We still have to deliver the final nail to the Unionist coffin in 2017. I’d prefer that the referendum be held on the same day or after the 2017 local election but it looks like it may be sooner than that. One, EU is set to kick out UK as fast as possible (we may have some leeway in this scenario) or two, the Tories call for a GE. This is the more probable scenario. I think the Tories will do this in order to heal and consolidate their internal division, and smash the Kippers at the same time (Kippers’ raison d’etre is now non-existent).
4. I think the establishment especially the media now that the time is up; the Union/UK is already dead. When the Record, David Torrence and the-author-that-must-not-be-named are making some semblance of rationality, you know something is very wrong in the yoon universe.
5. As Wings/Eric Joyce have highlighted; if a GE were to take place, there is no point of us participating in it and more importantly, can the SNP hold to its 56 MPs. Maybe it can, but god knows who will make up the UK government. I am quite sure they won’t be sympathetic to Scotland. I think it will be appropriate then for the SNP MPs to withdraw from the Westminster parliament if the GE were to be called.
6. The UDI option must be kept open. I find it a bit ridiculous to dismiss it. This is similar for me like when Ed Miliband shut out the option of working together with the SNP as a progressive political force during the 2015 GE campaign. Once you deny this option to yourself there is no chance to backtrack. Always keep all options available.
I fear we may be forced to move very fast. We may not have the luxury of time as a lot of events are taking place beyond our control. The Yes2 campaign should begin now.
I'll never trust the Record. I'm assuming Murray Foote is still the editor? Although I welcome any No voters who have changed their minds.
As I was discussing with Bruce on his blog, I voted Leave. I was so disgusted by Ruth Davidson's "Brit" speech, Blair's threat to kids in Ulster and another Brown intervention that I couldn't bring myself to vote Remain, even though I have no objection to Scotland being in the EU. I really wanted Cameron gone and to derail Davidson's Westminster-bound career. She is now trapped in a Parliament and a Country she despises.
Please keep your blog going. Yourself and Munguin provide us with a friendly and accessible view on our future.
PS: You know, I felt exactly like that. I wasn't going to vote, then the old folk downstairs asked me to take them (almost undoubtedly to vote leave) and I thought... damn, I've NEVER not voted. I didn't even have my card (the first time ever). But in the end I voted remain. I was thinking that's what Cameron wants me to do... then I though, but the other way is doing Farage's bidding... ARGH.
I voted Remain to separate Scotland from the UK.
To be honest, I thought remain would win. I'm excited that it didn't becasue of the material change that it has brought about.
Abu: Firstly I hope the amount of daylight is kinder to you there than it is here. Dark at around 11.30 and light again in the early hours of the morning, 3 ish.
Heaven knows what it's like in Iceland!
And sorry, the reply function is not working so I'm replying down here.
All you say there is methodical and logical (typical lawyer).
Don't disagree with any of it... I've never thought we should rule out UDI, but I've always thought it should be the last resort. And you certainly can't do it after losing a referendum... certainly not if you hope to be in the EU!
The question is what will the Tories do. Europe has told them to get on with it. Cameron wants to wait. he should probably do what he's told. He's looking for trade agreements.
Do they want an election? They only just won the last one by a tiny margin, on the other hand Labour is in turmoil, the Liberals are ...well, the Liberals.
What will the SNP do? They have to stand. To do otherwise is to let down their constituents for the 2 years the negotiations would take. It would also give presumably the Labour party, but possibly also the Tories in Scotland a bit of a boost.
Maybe the Tories will skip the election. There will only be 3.5 years left by October.
The UK doesn't have enough civil servants to do negotiations with Europe (they are really short of good people at the top) and Scotland and possibly NI all together.
The UK no longer has a commissioner in Brussels, becasue he resigned!
I don;t think there is any doubt that the campaign will begin right away!
Time, as they say, will tell. They have a lot of past bullsh*t, vow?,to be trusted too soon, but everyone deserves a second chance.
ReplyDeleteStuart did a really good post on that subject the other day.
DeleteThe situation has changed materially and they have changed their views, along with a lot of other people... or they have made a business decision that it's unwise to sell a view that is not shared by the majority of your potential customers.
Trust them as far as you can throw them.
DeleteMaybe not QUITE that far...
DeleteAnd this? http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14579793.A_bleak_result_with_massive_repercussions_for_the_UK_and_Europe/
ReplyDeleteThanks Anon. I can only read the first few paragraphs (because I don't subscribe), but what I've seen indicates a worrying future.
DeleteTwo things,
ReplyDelete1) What makes you think the UK parliament will permit it, particularly as you have to ask and there's a great deal of uncertainty going on as well as some no doubt protracted negotiations and a side show like Scotland will be a distraction?
2) If France, Holland, Italy, Spain et al have their own referenda and choose to leave the EU (and they are currently a lot more EUskeptic than the English) do you honestly think that the EU is a wise place to hang your hat upon?
If the people of Scotland wish to have a referendum, they shall have one.
DeleteAs did the people of Rhodesia. Like it or lump it, the Scottish Parliament devolves its power from the UK one, that's where its legitimacy comes from. Have as many referenda as you like, the world will not accept them as legitimate.
DeleteThis nonsense again. I really would love Westminster to deny a referendum. In fact I dare them!
DeleteGet off your knees QM. The people are sovereign in Scotland. We will have a referendum and if they don't accept that in the south, tough.
DeleteRhodesia is a poor choice. Pick oe of the other dodens of countries that left the Empire. We get the answer right, we leave.
And seeing as they are so keen to quote pronouncements of former politicians, Mrs Thatcher reckoned the Scots should elect a majority of their MP's as nationalists to go. We have 56. It is really our right to secede without a referendum.
S.A.
The world won't recognise the will of the Scottish people, as we say, awa an dinnae talk pish.
DeleteAm always dubious regarding statements like "the world will not accept them as legitimate" which raises obvious questions like "What do you mean by the world" and "How do you know this - do you have any evidence to back up this statement"? One thing I do know is that nothing would make independence more certain than Westminster telling Scots that they could not have a referendum or if they did that Westminster would not accept the result.
DeleteIf we're looking for an internationally recognized country that left the empire without any goodwill from Westminster, why don't we just pick out the elephant in the room - the USA?
DeleteSee, it's perfectly do-able.
Hello QM. Long time no see. How are you, and how is New Zealand?
DeleteI think that despite all the crap from Boris about refusing a second referendum, it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do. There may be a referendum in Northern Ireland too. Indeed Gibraltar too.
They lie during campaigns. Nigel Farage promised (I'm not sure on what authority) that all the money that was sent to the EU would be used in the failing NHS. (I expect that someone must have died and they made him Prime Minister or some sort of smoking drunken Viceroy.) Within minutes of declaring a National Independence Day, however, Nigel had denied that he had said it.
One of the main planks of the Better Together campaign from all the main parties was that the only way Scotland could remain in the EU was to vote NO to independence. They lied. 62% to 38% is a reasonable majority of us who want to stay.
We were told that a poxy little place like Scotland wouldn't be able to afford private pensions, but I see from the Herald (unionist) leader above that pension pots are in danger outside the EU.
They lied and they lied...
I'm not sure that other countries will have referenda. Once they see what's happened here it may put people off.
There may be some changes made, and god knows the EU needs them, but we have to hang our hat somewhere, and I'd rather be with Sweden, than with England.
I agree, Conan. We're in uncharted territory here, but it would certainly throw cats amongst pigeons for a posh Eton boy to tell us that we had to do what HE said instead of what our parliament had voted for.
DeleteOutcome a resignation of the government and Ruth Davidson takes over as first minister.
Wonder how that would work out...
Yep SA. Of course, just because Thatcher said it, it doesn't make it law, but as Boris and his ilk worship at her shrine, I suspect he would have to take that into consideration.
DeleteIt will be interesting to see how, once the news has sunk in, our parliament reacts. Will there be rebels on the Labour benches who go for another referendum... or will they all tow Boris's line.
Time to stand up and be counted.
I suppose they mean the United Nations, John.
DeleteBut it's hard to see how the UN would turn down the result of a Scottish referendum that clearly demanded independence.
Anyway, Boris (or whoever else it is... Wee Govey the House Elf maybe... Oh stop, I can't take any more!) will bluster and tell us it's out of the question, but with the weight of parliament behind her Nicola is a match for any of them.
Westminster will grant permission, and if they don't I expect that folk will just say "Yes Boris, whatever you say Boris"... or not.
LOL Illy, we don;t want a war of independence and the Brits burning down Bute House... On the other hand, as you say, it didn't work out too badly for the Americans...
DeleteOh please let us burn down Pacific Quay. Please please.
DeleteHa ha... it's hardly the White House. Given the content of their stuff, more like the Sh... oh never mind...
DeleteSuddenly, the BBC is covering what is going on in Europe. They have discovered that the rest of Europe cannot wait to start the withdrawal process.
ReplyDeleteWho'd ha thunk it?
I saw that this morning. Cameron thinks that because he's very rich and went to Eton and oxford he can wait around till the Tories have a new leader.
DeleteNo.
Turmoil in the markets may not affect people who have their money in the BVI, but many don't and the EU wants to start withdrawal negotiations as quickly as possible.
Apparently (according to something I half heard on teh radio news today) a retired civil servant (at the "Sir" level) has said that they don't have nearly enough civil servants with knowledge or experience of international treaties to negotiate withdrawal. They will need, I heard, a least 200, and they have about 10 (although I was half asleep and these figures may not be exact).
Still, while we are still in the single market they can get some Europeans across to do it for them.
If a major newspaper comes out for Yes, then it's a done deal in my opinion. Bring it on!
ReplyDeleteWell stretching it a bit, the Daily Record is a major newspaper. It may not do detailed analysis particularly well, but it splashes its opinions in big letters on the front page, and that is what most people see in supermarkets these days.
DeleteLooking at the editorial from the Herald, it appears that it may be a potential ally.
And labour could win back some of its traditional support by taking the feelings of sizeable proportion of the population on board.
Personally I don't give a monkey's what msm says but too many folk last time who wanted to vote yes in their hearts were put off because of the wall of media advocating No and tearing strips of any Yes argument whilst giving No a free ride.
ReplyDeleteOne of the reasons Brexit won was because MSM was divided on the subject. If indy2 consists of more than one Sunday paper supporting Yes than I'll be applying for a Scottish passport in the nearish future.
And as for your comment in previous thread about MR running its course, don't you DARE stop the blog. Even if only Soppy Sunday remains. If you stop I will hunt you down and "persuade" you to continue :-)
I'm inclined to agree.
DeleteOh the bliss of having a Scottish passport.
Munguin and I are going to Hungary in August and i was just checking up that we had our EU health cards. I was reminded that if we didn't have them we would need to purchase some sort of insurance or pay at the hospital if anything happened.
No thanks (to borrow a phrase from the UKOKers.
You're a scary panda, PP.
I've been struggling to find stuff to write about recently... and a few times when I have found something, I've got half way through it and found that Stuart or someone else has covered it better.
But I'm feeling a little more motivated now adn I suspect that in the weeks and months to come there will be a great deal on interesting stuff going on.
:)
Soppy Sunday is safe for the moment!!!
The magazine content is very good here. I love soppy sunday too.
DeleteIf you don't think you have enough political content you can offer us insights into the lives of minor celebrities. Stories on the psychology of a troll. Features about shops or fashion tips. Where does Nicola get her shoes, which impartial journalist is staying at Jack's villa? The list is endless.
Just you stay here until this fight is over. We are in the endgame now. If we are not free by 2021 we will never be. We need sites like this.
Saor ( tongue in cheek sometimes) Alba
LOl SA...
DeleteFashion on Friday... endless pictures of Nicola's shoes...
Tips on Tuesday (Eck's racing)
Moneing Monday. What the Noble Baroness is doing for the benefit of the country, besides posing with her cleavage on display...
Warped on Wednesday. What Old Kirsty is up to these days!
I suspect there will be more to write about now. Although we still have to have the second part of the leadership battle.
DeleteBoris or Boris (or May or wee Govey.)
Hi Tris, New Zealand is wonderful, I'm pretty sure you'll get your referendum, however if you're going to do it you need to follow the rules, even then, beware, there's currently a petition out there to call a second EU referendum because some London luvvies didn't like the result of the first and want to change the rules. Any miscalculation or short-cut will cause problems for you, so do it properly, just be aware that the 'establishment' will be distracted and might tell you to wait your turn.
DeleteYour best bet for independence however might just be to hold the referenda in England and ask them if they want to keep you ;-)
LOL. They'd probably say no!
DeleteI think that everyone has pretty much agreed that the only leader in the Uk that is dealing with this sensibly is Nicola. I'm sure that some other politicians are talking some sort of scene, but we're talking amongst the top folk...the rest of them are crap.
Nicola is taking it slow, becasue no one knows what may happen... There are no rules for this.
It's quite exciting.
This time,big money will back Scotland remaining in the EU (possibly even the CBI in Scotland) and that can probably only be achieved by Scottish independence.
ReplyDeleteI expect the efforts from HM government in London to undermine the EU to intensify as they strive to convince Scots that they are Better Together with England than with a bunch of foreigners.
Interesting that many No voters in our referendum are now beginning to realise that it was really all about democracy or rather the lack of.
Perhaps the real issues will get a proper airing this time around.
I suspect you are right bringiton.
DeleteWith 62% of the (voting) population wanting to remain, I thing that the papers will join in. Business, or at lest a lot of business, will be scared to death of losing the market of 500 million Europeans.
I doubt that the EU will be overly generous, if for no other reason "pour encourager les autres". Give the UK a good deal and you could lose France!!
A bigger percentage of the population will be behind the campaign.
I wonder what the BBC will make of it.
Let's not forget, that 62% remain didn't include 16-18 year olds, or EU citizens. The 'true' figure is probably much higher.
ReplyDeleteGood point Jutie.
DeleteThey removed the right to vote from all Europeans except irish (odd) adn of course because it's based on an outdated Westminster system, 16-18s couldn't vote.. but in all statistical likelihood would have voted Remain.
So we'll go with 70% shall we?
Hungary? Been there, not nice.
ReplyDeleteSeeing as Tris won't bite.
DeleteWhereabouts? Outside a Pizzahut with no money! Boom Boom.
I'll get my coat.
Get your coat Jutie.
DeleteAND I might not bite, but Munguin does!
Hard.
Tris
ReplyDeleteIt's all too early and still raw as it was in Sep 14. The EU are pissed off and frightened about what this all means. The majority of Scots are pissed off as they are being forced into something again that has been rejected in Scotland. The media are complicit in the whole mess and therefor don't count, they will get zero understanding from myself. The other thing is I would not write off the UK so readily or that EU membership is a given. So it is take a breath time, a step back, talk to the EU once the dust settles, speak to the voters, build a mandate and then move. I do know one thing, if we are able to join it will be the euro as the currency and they better get that into their heads now and start selling the idea to people.
Bruce
Nicola is already talking to the EU. They want it settled quickly. I agree that they are worried oo, so the UK will be unlikely to get a sympathetic hearing, given that that would "encourager les autres!
DeleteCameron wants to take it nice and slow...
But the EU want it settled, so we have to be in quick, as do any other countries or places. (Gibraltar, NI, and the strange situation of London.)
Tris,
ReplyDeleteApologies for not commenting more than I have had. In the midst of observing the fast (it is about to end, ten more days) and busy with the plantation.
Some observations post-Brexit:
1. I correctly called for the result during a discussion with my friend the political theorist. He was saying it might be close in favour of remain. I told him of Scot Goes Pop poll tracking and (the clincher) John Harris' clip from the Guardian. Kippers and Tories will definitely vote for Leave but it is the Labour (North) that will swing. That they duly did.
2. Brexit was the material change in circumstances and Indyref2 will instituted. With or without the permission from Westminster. There is a good chance we will clinch it and by god Scotland could very well be independent when I set my foot again there.
3. The question is timing. We still have to deliver the final nail to the Unionist coffin in 2017. I’d prefer that the referendum be held on the same day or after the 2017 local election but it looks like it may be sooner than that. One, EU is set to kick out UK as fast as possible (we may have some leeway in this scenario) or two, the Tories call for a GE. This is the more probable scenario. I think the Tories will do this in order to heal and consolidate their internal division, and smash the Kippers at the same time (Kippers’ raison d’etre is now non-existent).
4. I think the establishment especially the media now that the time is up; the Union/UK is already dead. When the Record, David Torrence and the-author-that-must-not-be-named are making some semblance of rationality, you know something is very wrong in the yoon universe.
5. As Wings/Eric Joyce have highlighted; if a GE were to take place, there is no point of us participating in it and more importantly, can the SNP hold to its 56 MPs. Maybe it can, but god knows who will make up the UK government. I am quite sure they won’t be sympathetic to Scotland. I think it will be appropriate then for the SNP MPs to withdraw from the Westminster parliament if the GE were to be called.
6. The UDI option must be kept open. I find it a bit ridiculous to dismiss it. This is similar for me like when Ed Miliband shut out the option of working together with the SNP as a progressive political force during the 2015 GE campaign. Once you deny this option to yourself there is no chance to backtrack. Always keep all options available.
I fear we may be forced to move very fast. We may not have the luxury of time as a lot of events are taking place beyond our control. The Yes2 campaign should begin now.
This year will definitely be an interesting one.
Kippers raison d'etre isn't gone, they are taking over from Labour who were rejected en-masse by their core vote in the northern towns of England.
Delete4...know*...
ReplyDeleteI'll never trust the Record. I'm assuming Murray Foote is still the editor? Although I welcome any No voters who have changed their minds.
ReplyDeleteAs I was discussing with Bruce on his blog, I voted Leave. I was so disgusted by Ruth Davidson's "Brit" speech, Blair's threat to kids in Ulster and another Brown intervention that I couldn't bring myself to vote Remain, even though I have no objection to Scotland being in the EU.
I really wanted Cameron gone and to derail Davidson's Westminster-bound career. She is now trapped in a Parliament and a Country she despises.
Please keep your blog going. Yourself and Munguin provide us with a friendly and accessible view on our future.
That's the point of independence...
DeleteTelling them that they were fucking idiots to believe Better Together propaganda may be counter productive.
Smile. It's OK. Ye ken noo...
PS: You know, I felt exactly like that. I wasn't going to vote, then the old folk downstairs asked me to take them (almost undoubtedly to vote leave) and I thought... damn, I've NEVER not voted. I didn't even have my card (the first time ever). But in the end I voted remain. I was thinking that's what Cameron wants me to do... then I though, but the other way is doing Farage's bidding... ARGH.
DeleteI voted Remain to separate Scotland from the UK.
To be honest, I thought remain would win. I'm excited that it didn't becasue of the material change that it has brought about.
I agree Conan. Stuart did a great post on that the other day.
DeleteLet's try to win No Thanks voters over. The best way is not to tell them they were stupid.
Just let's say welcome.
Abu: Firstly I hope the amount of daylight is kinder to you there than it is here. Dark at around 11.30 and light again in the early hours of the morning, 3 ish.
ReplyDeleteHeaven knows what it's like in Iceland!
And sorry, the reply function is not working so I'm replying down here.
All you say there is methodical and logical (typical lawyer).
Don't disagree with any of it... I've never thought we should rule out UDI, but I've always thought it should be the last resort. And you certainly can't do it after losing a referendum... certainly not if you hope to be in the EU!
The question is what will the Tories do. Europe has told them to get on with it. Cameron wants to wait. he should probably do what he's told. He's looking for trade agreements.
Do they want an election? They only just won the last one by a tiny margin, on the other hand Labour is in turmoil, the Liberals are ...well, the Liberals.
What will the SNP do? They have to stand. To do otherwise is to let down their constituents for the 2 years the negotiations would take. It would also give presumably the Labour party, but possibly also the Tories in Scotland a bit of a boost.
Maybe the Tories will skip the election. There will only be 3.5 years left by October.
The UK doesn't have enough civil servants to do negotiations with Europe (they are really short of good people at the top) and Scotland and possibly NI all together.
The UK no longer has a commissioner in Brussels, becasue he resigned!
I don;t think there is any doubt that the campaign will begin right away!
Good luck with the fasting mate.
Afterthought, Abu... you're right about UKIP. What is their point now?
DeleteAnswers on a post card.
Lord Farage of Fagash?
The UK doesn't have enough civil servants to do negotiations with Europe (they are really short of good people at the top)
DeleteMaybe they could hire some Poles. That's what every other organisation does.
S.A.