THOUGHTS ON NATE SILVER'S PREDICTIONS AND THOSE OF MATT QVORTRUP

It was interesting that the Scotsman, in common with most other papers in Scotland and the BBC, decided to ignore the opinion poll organised by Wings over Scotland.

Those which did mention it seem to have done so in a patronising fashion, or have suggested that the questions were biased, which I found odd, because Panelbase is a respected polling organisation which adheres to the British Polling Council rules, and many newspapers and the BBC use the company to conduct polls on their behalf.

Perhaps the silence is not surprising given that the general tone of the poll suggested that there was every reason for optimism from the Yes campaign, and that the question on who was considered trustworthy by the respondents showed the Press in a pretty bad light.

While completely ignoring the WoS poll, The Scotsman led their front page with comments from Nate Silver, an American mathematician who correctly foretold the results of each state and DC in the presidential election last year. Mr Silver said that the YES campaign had little chance of winning. James Kelly has done his usual top-class job of analysing Silver's prediction here.

The New Statesman, has also questioned Silver's predictions, based on the less than impressive predictions he made for the UK election, in an article by Alex Hern, which you can access here.

But I was somewhat taken aback to read an entirely opposite prediction in the Express, albeit one which was made a couple of years ago. 

Using historic precedent Professor Matt Qvortrup suggests that Yes will almost certainly win, given that, of 46 referenda on independence since 1905, 42 have resulted in a new country, two in Québec have resulted in status quo and the other two were later overturned by subsequent referenda which opted for independence (Malta and Montenegro).

Personally, I'm happy to know that we are moving slowly but surely in the right direction. 

We are still waiting to hear from Better Together how, apart from our seat on the Security Council, nuclear weapons and the respect and fear of all other countries for the the fourth largest military spend in the world, what exactly it is that makes us Better Together. 

The No campaign has been remarkably silent on what they can promise us for the future; indeed they all seem to say different things about further powers. Alistair Darling made an interesting observation that nothing could be promised at this time. 

Whatever may be further devolved will have to be in manifestos for the next UK election. And we all know that what goes in manifestos for Westminster is what the parties think will be well received in South East England where the votes are, and where elections are lost and won...so don't hold your breath for anything that will do Scotland any good.