Guest Post by Dean MacKinnon-Thomson
(Munguin's man in China)
When the lamentable Johann Lamont took to twitter to declare 'victory' over YES Scotland in September she was missing something. That 'something' was the phrase 'pyrrhic victory'. Someone had better lend her a dictionary quick.
In an aftermath of a referendum campaign which had witnessed 37% of Labour voters ticking the 'YES' box; you'd be free to think a tone of reconciliation was in order. But then, if you think that, you really don't get SLAB do you?
Throughout the campaign many traditional Labour voters drifted to the YES camp. For their temerity to question their received orders from Labour HQ they were cat-called. 'Closet-Nat', 'SNP spy'. Someone I know who did exactly this was even accused of being a 'traitor'. Harsh words, alienation and then the final salt in the wound: 'Victory'. SLAB presided over their worst political campaign in living memory. Wrong tone, wrong attitude. And 'pyrrhic' is just the result.
YouGov & Survation polling (unusually) agree that SLAB is facing a haemorrhaging of votes the SNP In GE2015. 'Just' and 'desserts' spring to my mind:
YouGov aggregates: Lab 31% SNP: 33% LD 6% Tory 20%
Survation poll: Lab 32% SNP 34% LD 5% Tory 18%
Both the Survation poll and the YouGov aggregate of Scottish YouGov polling were conducted after the September referendum.
If we put the Survation numbers through Electoral Calculus we see:
Lab – 29 MPs
SNP – 25 MPs
LD – 2 MPs
Tory – 3 MPs
And before anyone claims 'this couldn't ever happen!', I'd ask you to note polling legend Peter Kellner comments on the scale of swings the SNP'd need to make major gains against SLAB:
“Only three Labour seats are vulnerable to a 5% swing to the SNP; but then comes a tipping point. An 8% swing would cost Labour 19 seats – and probably Miliband’s hopes of becoming Prime Minister.” link: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/22/its-make-or-break-miliband-unloved/)
This is what happens when you take your vote for granted. When you never bother canvassing. When you condescend to 'your voters'. They kick you, and make sure you feel it.
I for one wouldn't rule out the SNP securing an 8% swing away from SLAB in 6 months time. After all, just how is SLAB going to counter the SNPs now massive party membership? The SNP can simply out-gun the Labour Party on the doorsteps across Scotland.
To SLAB all I'll say is: Con te partirò