Guest Post by Dean MacKinnon-Thomson
(Munguin's man in China)
When the lamentable Johann Lamont took to twitter to declare
'victory' over YES Scotland in September she was missing something. That
'something' was the phrase 'pyrrhic victory'. Someone had better lend her a
dictionary quick.
In an aftermath of a referendum campaign which had witnessed
37% of Labour voters ticking the 'YES' box; you'd be free to think a tone of
reconciliation was in order. But then, if you think that, you really don't get
SLAB do you?
Throughout the campaign many traditional Labour voters
drifted to the YES camp. For their temerity to question their received orders
from Labour HQ they were cat-called. 'Closet-Nat', 'SNP spy'. Someone I know
who did exactly this was even accused of being a 'traitor'. Harsh words,
alienation and then the final salt in the wound: 'Victory'. SLAB presided over
their worst political campaign in living memory. Wrong tone, wrong attitude.
And 'pyrrhic' is just the result.
YouGov & Survation polling (unusually) agree that SLAB
is facing a haemorrhaging of votes the SNP In GE2015. 'Just' and 'desserts'
spring to my mind:
YouGov aggregates: Lab 31% SNP: 33% LD 6% Tory 20%
Survation poll: Lab 32% SNP 34% LD 5% Tory 18%
Both the Survation poll and the YouGov aggregate of Scottish
YouGov polling were conducted after the September referendum.
If we put the Survation numbers through Electoral Calculus
we see:
Lab – 29 MPs
SNP – 25 MPs
LD – 2 MPs
Tory – 3 MPs
And before anyone claims 'this couldn't ever happen!', I'd
ask you to note polling legend Peter Kellner comments on the scale of swings
the SNP'd need to make major gains against SLAB:
“Only three Labour seats are vulnerable to a 5% swing to the
SNP; but then comes a tipping point. An 8% swing would cost Labour 19 seats –
and probably Miliband’s hopes of becoming Prime Minister.” link: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/22/its-make-or-break-miliband-unloved/)
This is what happens when you take your vote for granted.
When you never bother canvassing. When you condescend to 'your voters'. They
kick you, and make sure you feel it.
I for one wouldn't rule out the SNP securing an 8% swing
away from SLAB in 6 months time. After all, just how is SLAB going to counter
the SNPs now massive party membership? The SNP can simply out-gun the Labour
Party on the doorsteps across Scotland.
To SLAB all I'll say is: Con te partirò
