As you can see from the link the figures are, to say the least, encouraging.
On a poll of 1002 Scottish adults in the last few days of August, the voting intentions for the constituency members show a substantial lead for the SNP over Labour. Of those certain to vote, the difference is 49% to 28% in the SNP’s favour. The Tories are on 12% and the Liberals on 7%.
The figures for the total expressing a favoured party are not substantially different with the SNP on 47% and Labour on 30%. The Tories remain of 12% and the Liberals lose one to show 6%.
The graph of the constituency trend since 2005 shows a general upward trend for the SNP with a small dip in late 2009 – 2010 and then a surge towards the election, and even more of a surge since, to end at 49%.
Labour started off in the mid 30s, dipped and surged in time to take a nose dive from 40 in late 2010, to 30 at the election and 28 now. The Tories are fairly flat lined with a few small dips and rises, but ending up a little lower on 13%. The Liberals lost some ground in the early part of the graph but needless to say, as a result of getting in to bed with Cameron in England, they slipped from middle teens at the English elections to 7% now...down by around a point from the election.
The Westminster voting intentions look encouraging too, with the SNP having a lead over Labour of 7-9%. Of course that would still be likely to leave Labour with far and away the largest number of seats, but it is encouraging that support for the SNP is holding up. It is particularly cheering that since the election for Westminster, Labour’s votes have reduced substantially and ours have risen even more dramatically.
A limited leaders’ satisfaction poll was taken, leaving out Annabel and Gray, both of whom are to stand down (and apparently no one thought to include Patrick).
So we have the battle of the giants... or rather the giant, and Willie.
Alex has an approval rating of 62%, not bad after 4 years of being First Minister; Willie on the other hand has, after 4 months of being leader, a satisfaction rating of 17%!
Hold away Willie, maybe someday someone will notice you’re there.
tris
ReplyDeletethe snp have passed there high point in electoral terms like many another party (The Torys The Labour party etc)
Then the trend is gradual decline and eventual ejection from power whether the snp will get to jump the Independence fence before being shot down the shitter will be decided in the next few years.
Mind I do like your Stalinist view on possible elections 62% to 17% in favour of the dear leader
Scottish Business fear the snp Referendum could cause irreparable damage to Scotlands Economy.......the snp response was to say to shut the feck up
ReplyDelete'and highlighted the business community’s concern about the “possible damage that could be done to Scotland'
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/business-leaders-independence-warning-1.1121335
tris
ReplyDeletewas that poll taken before the damaging(shameful ) revelations over Alex Salmonds duplicitous behaviour requesting a knighthood for Brian souter and then covering it all up.............
The Truth will out in the end no matter how much Alex Salmond the snp and the cybernat brigade attempt to subvert it.
Yes, of course, Niko. Once you're at the top, there is supposedly only one way to go. And although so far it hasn't happened... that's no guarantee that it won't.
ReplyDeleteI felt that, in a UK where politics has become a constant battle in presentation between two parties which seem to want more or less the same things; where there really isn't a huge ideological divide, people are sick of the petty bickering.
Perhaps because they were forced into that situation, the SNP had to compromise in the last 4 years. It’s what minority government is about. There were things that simply didn’t get done... referendum, LIT... and there were things that had to be compromised... more police, drugs policies.
FMQs would have you believe that it was all arguments and politics, but if you ever turned up for a debate that was less show biz and more real business, there was a good deal more good humour and co-operation between parties.
The SNP is now in a position to push things through regardless, but I truly hope that they will stick to what Nicola said just after the election. They may have won most seats, but they don’t have a monopoly on ideas or wisdom. That is spread across the parties, and so (she said), they would continue to seek compromises and agreement with other parties.
There will be items, like the referendum bill where the Independent and Greens will probably vote with the SNP, and the Tories and Liberals will vote with Labour, and the SNP will win. But let’s hope that most things can be worked out for the good of Scotland in what are, to put it mildly, hard times.
Whilst they should never lose sight of the fact that they are opposition parties with their own agendas, which their supporters voted for, wouldn’t it be nice if all the parties went along with that. We are in a mess; we have a limited amount of money; we have a Tory government that is even more destructive that the Thatcher one. We in Scotland are really all in it together, because we are dependent on handouts from George Osborne.
We need to be grateful that Blair did introduce a Scottish government so that in 5 years time we will still have a Health Service worth talking about; hopefully we will still have water in public hands; hopefully old folk will still be able to get a bus free; hopefully we’ll still have free prescriptions.
England will have become a foreign land as far as many things are concerned. In Cameron’s England life will be nothing like it is here.
Why would an independence poll hurt Scottish buisiness.
ReplyDeleteNiko, we have heard all this crap a million times before.
Much was made about your party's bringing in of a minimum wage...OH, they said, it will shut down hundreds of thousands small companies millions of jobs will be lost if we have to pay a living wage... It will be the end of half of UK businesses if we lose our competitiveness.
What happened? nothing.
Tsk, Niko. Don't believe all the rubbish you read in the unionist press. They are working hard to keep us in toryland.
Alex can't and didn't.
ReplyDeleteAnd the poll was in the last few days.
ReplyDeleteEngland will have become a foreign land
ReplyDelete..........Err! England was always a foreign land ruled by Germans
Well, there you are.
ReplyDeleteTris,
ReplyDeleteHave you posted the graphic from February for comparison purposes?
Barney said...
ReplyDeleteTris,
Have you posted the graphic from February for comparison purposes?
Just imagine how Niko would of responded if he had seen the real one!
Poor Willie, but it can hardly be a surprise to the failed Fife MP when his manifesto is a carbon copy of Nick Clegg’s with Nick’s name tippexed out and Scotland added in yellow crayon. A bit of a blow to Caron and other Scottish Lib Dems who like to trumpet the mantra so popular among unionist hacks that Willie is holding the SNP to account. It seems that the people definitely don’t think so and that is why Willie lost his deposit at Inverclyde.
ReplyDeleteIt’s a shame they did not include Murdo Fraser the front runner for next leader of the Tories. I was reading the other day that he is to make his play by also holding the SNP to account and flagging up what’s good about the union! Ah will they never learn that the people would rather see an independent direction even from the unionist parties. It seems that Willie and now Murdo are going to continue to tell us all that we are much better off tugging the forelock to the English.
Looking forward to the local elections in eight months, on those numbers the Lib Dems will no longer be saved by STV and allowed to hold the balance of power in so many Scottish local authorities, like Edinburgh, Fife, Perth and Kinross, Aberdeen. Which way will their vote go? Hopefully to the SNP that way we should pick up the three Lib Dem seats in Dundee and keep the SNP in the driving seat.
ReplyDeleteAm I missing something?
ReplyDeleteAre the graphs of an earlier poll because they don't seem to represent the current Ipso-Mori poll?
or am I still drunk?
If my arithmetic is correct - thanks to Mrs Hardy - the graph on the left shows 102% voting. Would the 2% be the Labour postal votes?
ReplyDeleteTris
ReplyDeleteThe good news for the SNP continues "unabated"
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/labour-axes-old-guard-1.1121574
Glasgow Labour councillors axed, lets hope they stand as independents and split whats left of the Labour vote.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-14774433
If Lamont is the answer Labour are asking the wrong question. They will look back at Iain Grays time as the good old days.
Sorry everyone.
ReplyDeleteThe illustration is only that...an illustration. The poll is actually linked by the first two paragraphs.
It was misleading and I will take it down and provide another illustration.
Apologies again.
Barney: Special apologies to you. I posted a reply to you (which you may have received by email if you subscribed to the post) because I thought you were being factitious.
ReplyDeleteI see that your comment was based on the dubious illustration, which was my error.
;¬)
Yes Munguin. If only we were still ruled directly from London. A largely privatised NHS would be heading our way. Free schools, where we would pay for the education of children without having any control at all over what they were taught would litter our towns, our elderly would not only lose part of their winter fuel allowance in a bitterly cold country, they would also lose their travel concessions, our students would have a mortgage around their necks before they even started looking for a house...
ReplyDeleteOh, all the joyous things we are missing out by having our own government.
If we weren't paying for needless and endless wars and having to buy gas from Russia (because we have enough of our own) we could easily live like the Norwegians.
Well first of all... probably yes to the last question Snooty, but no, the illustrated graph was incorrect and I apologise for it. The graph that counts is the one linked to in the first paragraph.
ReplyDeleteSilly me.... Maybe I'm still drunk your Lordness?
Can't be that, John. If it were Labour's postal votes it would be up at 115% (just to be sure).
ReplyDeleteI guess it just must be that the percentages were rounded up. The postal votes must have been put in a big black bag, right next to the bins... Yes, I know, but these things happen old chap!
Brilliant Dubs. They are having a clear out of the dead wood; the I'm here because my faither was here lot. But why now?
ReplyDeleteAre they looking to find places for Labour stalwarts from parliament?
As for Ms Lamont... bwa, ha ha. I now believe I can do the job. Hmmm anything to keep that nasty right winger out.
Good luck to them, because as you say, this is most definitely not the way back to power. Surely someone will persuade Jackie to stand against her.
Bugger!
ReplyDeleteI thought it was me and decided to stay drunk so opened another case of Tatti
Tris
ReplyDeleteThis poll must be wrong.
Rennie only minus 14 satisfaction, he must be far lower than that. He has done nothing since he sneaked in seventh out of eight on the assisted places scheme.
When canvassing in May one thing that people brought up was the phoney snarling of Iain Gray, most people thought that it was a pretty poor act. Rennie looks to have fallen into the same trap trying to look tough, he just looks what he is, a clueless idiot.
Happy days, looks like the opposition leaders! could be Rennie, Lamont and another useless tory. Looks like Trisha is the only one who can hold Alex to account as these three would not worry anyone.
Munguin has just pointed out to me that I haven't fully explained the satisfaction rating.
ReplyDeleteIn the link there is graph of sorts which show satisfaction and dissatisfaction with Alex Salmond and Willie Rennie (the other leaders being deemed not important enough to comment on, or in the process of being replaced).
Willie's satisfaction rating is 17% and his dissatisfaction rating is 32% which gives him a -14%.
The first two paragraphs prove the link to the IPSO-Mori poll.
I'm sorry about the confusion. I assumed people knew that the coloured pieces of text were links.
Tris
ReplyDeleteInteresting read. Even Labour blogs are praising Salmond now.
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/09/nomination-for-most-influential-left-wing-thinker-of-the-year-alex-salmond/
Ah..well, that should keep you out of trouble at least until dinner time your dukeness.
ReplyDeleteTris
ReplyDeleteAnother third rate Lib Dum provides cover for their tory masters by attacking Alex Salmond.
http://news.stv.tv/politics/268791-alex-salmond-is-backing-away-from-full-scottish-independence/
You would think that Wallace would keep quiet the day after his idiotic decision on slopping out is once again in the news and yet again a useless Lib Dum set to cost the people of Scotland millions.
Was that three empty buckets speaking in the last three days, or was that the final death rattle of an almost extinct party.
Go back to your constituency's and disappear as David Steel should have said.
I'm impressed Dubs.
ReplyDeleteIt's a blog I've respected for some time...it's on my blog list.
It's a good post. I'll quote from it in the future.
Thanks for the heads up.
Oh Jeez Dubs. That second one was a corker. I see the Noble and Distinguished Lard Tanker Ness appears to know more about Alex Salmond's intentions than Alex Salmond does.
ReplyDeleteMaybe when one is elevated to the nobility for no discernible reason and then given some obscure and redundant post by an evil and self righteous government led by a fat boy from Eton who likes his photographs airbrushed, one developes mind reading capabilities.
On the other hand maybe the senile old goat who was useless as deputy first minister, is blethering who a hole in his butt, as usual.
As for Moore and Alexander...words escape me. They used to be Liberals didn't they?
Yes Munguin. Looking forward to the local elections (although the leafleting and stuff, I could do without). The results will be very interesting.
ReplyDeleteTris
ReplyDeleteMe again, thought that you would like this, as it is very interesting and looks at the "oil" question from a different angle.
It was one of the comments in Newsnets story about the new opinion poll.
We are repeatedly told in the news currently that once the oil starts flowing again in Libya, they will be very wealthy, in fact one of the wealthiest in the world (watch out for these remarks in the news, especially the BBC)
Now consider this. Libya is 17th in the world in Oil production, producing 1,790,000 barrels of Oil a day and has a population of 6.42 Million , thats equivelant to 0.2788 barrels of oil per person
Scotland is 19th in the world in Oil production, producing 1,502,000 barrels of Oil a day and has a population of 5.22 Million thats equivelant to 0.2877 barrels of oil per person
This is the clearest double standard and freshest in the mind of people because of Libya.
Repeatedly in the News especailly the BBC, talks of Libya, being a wealthy country, but when it comes to Scotland, its all talk of 'oil running out' and Scotland cant rely on the Oil.
I think this is worth repeating, will we see it on the BBC? LOL.
Absolutely spot on Dubs...
ReplyDeleteOne of these facts that you need to store up for the future when fools like Danny Alexander and his bottom of the barrel replacement brought in when it was discovered that the Chief Secretary to the treasury had sticky fingers, start shouting their mouths off.
The trouble with all these people is how amateur they are. I suppose in the case of the Liberals, they didn't ever expect to do anything but sit on the opposition benches beneath the passageway and bleat disapproval no matter who was in government. It doesn't take much in the way of intellect to do that.
But suddenly they are propelled by their boss (whose ambitions exceed his principles) into offices of state in England and in Scotland. Unfortunately Scotland gets the also ran who wouldn't have had a job at all had not one of his colleagues lied in their expenses.
Their lack of ability means that we get poor governance, and that when they are lying through their teeth they aren't bright enough to see that there are no loose ends.
It really is pathetic.
We could be among the richest countries on the planet and England for obvious reasons doesn't want to let us off the leash.
And so many Scots lap it up...
I'll keep that and use it. Thanks again.
Tris
ReplyDeleteThe good news for the SNP just keeps on coming.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/8739927/Scottish-Conservative-Party-set-to-disband.html
If Fraser thinks calling the deck chairs on the tory titanic a different name will gain him votes he is dafter than he looks.
What will the Lib Dums do if this happens? Who cares they are sunk anyway. Captain Rennie will load the lifeboats with the Lib Dems cry "torys first" I know my place.
Tris
ReplyDeleteI thought you would like the new oil angle. This is the type of analysis that we need in the run up to our referendum. Our question, our timing, the losers just have to sit and moan.
What we need is analysis like this for all areas of our economy. As an example I have been told that income tax and national insurance that the Scottish employees of the big four supermarkets does not get counted in the Scottish revenue as the headquarters of these supermarkets are in England so these count as English revenues.
I have never been able to verify this, I wonder if anyone knows if this is actually the case, but if it is its another area where Scotland gets ripped off, or as the Lib Dums would say another union dividend.
Dubs..
ReplyDeleteI was only saying the other day that we need to be telling people about the advantages of independence.
We need to feed them the facts. Facts like the oil one.
We could live like Norwegians. As it is we live like people in a third world country with broken roads, cold houses, poor people...
Just look at faces in the street. Sad people living in poverty.
It doesn't have to be like this. We don't have to have nuclear capabilities, and a huge military spend. We don't need to be running Afghanistan and Iraq, Libya and what ever comes next. No. We could be running Scotland, for Scots.
I imagine that the income from any organisation that has its head office in England will be counted as English revenue; therefore English taxes.
marks and Spencer, Tesco, Sainbury's, Boots, B&Q. The list is endless.
Money comes here and goes straight back to London.
But hopefully not for long.
We all have to work hard to disseminate information on how GOOD Scotland could be...as opposed to how crap it is just now.
I don't want to live the rest of my life under people like Cameron, so it's shoulders to the wheel for a few more years...then independence.
*****
PS> I like the lifeboats picture... Willie hasn't half pinned his colours to the English Liberal/Tory mast (to continue the shipping metaphor).
ReplyDeleteIt means he'll go down with them when the time comes.... Buh-bye. Glug, glug, glug