RANDOM THOUGHTS

Obviously not in need of a Red Cross food parcel, Tubby Osborne...

Mr Osborne, that (economic) giant of a chancellor, has welcomed the 0.8% growth over three months as an indication that Britain is now on the road to prosperity.

Oh how lovely it must be to live in a bubble like George does.

Looked at from the point of view of "ordinary" people who are not bankers, lords, royals or members of the house of commons, the reality is somewhat different. 

Wages are falling, prices are rising at an alarming rate, food banks are opening at the rate of two a week to feed the starving and the Red Cross is distributing food in the UK as it does after earthquakes and monsoon floods in countries like Bangladesh. We had no need of a natural disaster. Osborne on his own is worth two floods and a hurricane.

Before he treats himself to a bottle or two of the best vintage champagne at our expense to celebrate, Osborne should keep in mind that this is the slowest recovery from  recession ever recorded in the UK, and many economists doubt if it can be sustained in to 2014.

Another downside of it is that it may be necessary to raise interest rates up to a year sooner than had previously been anticipated by the new genius of a governor of the Bank of Britain, or England as it is largely known.

This may mean that along with the poor and dispossessed on the streets as a result of the coalition's disastrous policies on social security, those who can no longer afford to pay their mortgages may be struggling for a place under railway bridges.
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Promises, promises

Congratulations to Cara Hilton on her win in Dunfermline. Clearly this is a disappointing result for the SNP, but hardly surprising given that it was a solid Labour seat and the MSP who eventually resigned, screaming, was a serial wife beater and is now in prison. It is unfortunate that to win Ms Hilton had to claim that Labour had abolished bridge tolls and frozen the council tax, but hey, everyone exaggerates a little sometimes.

Hilton has made some interesting promises. She says that she will be a fresh voice for Dunfermline, and, given that she doesn't have the same voice as the wife beater, I guess you could say that was a fairly safe promise. 

She will also oppose the SNP's alleged 'obsession for independence', with presumably her own obsession for dependence. 

Interestingly she, all on her own, is going to reduce the cost of living. Of course she now has a very generous salary as an MSP, but hardly enough to subsidise all of Dunfermline's population by say, paying the increase in their gas and electricity bills, or taking care of half of their weekly shop?

She can demand improved bus services all she likes, but she will find that Maggie Thatcher deregulated the buses everywhere in the UK (except London) and it's pretty difficult to get these private companies to do anything much that doesn't make them a big fat profit. But good luck to her with that, because in all the years of Labour government north and south of the border, all that ever happened to buses was that they got worse and worse and worse... 

And finally she's is going to stand up for Dunfermline town centre, whatever that means. 

It will be interesting to watch her progress and see how Scotland changes now that she is in parliament. If the cost of living in Dunfermline drops by a sustained amount then possibly I'll go live there.

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And finally, I've heard that, with the cooperation of management, unions, the workforce and both governments, the Grangemouth plant is to stay open.

Both the First minister and Mr Carmichael have welcomed the decision. The devil will be in the detail.

SNAPS FOR SATURDAY

Who? Lamont, you say? Hmmmm, nope. No one of that name here, is there Donald?

If your kids ever ask you how to get on in life... here's your answer. Give money to the Tories (or the Liberals, or Labour).

Adios Nick. Don't rush back, please!

See...loads of good reasons to vote Conservative (or  Liberal, or Labour).

And if you don't have it, then Mr Duncan Smith will soon get you another job as a slave in Tesco.

There's many a true word spoken in jest. Don't think just because the figures showed a pathetic growth that that means that the misery is over. With this lot (or Labour) the misery will never be over.

Remember your mum and dad telling you to save for a rainy day? They hadn't bargained on the ineptitude of the Conservatives (or Liberals or Labour). You might as well spend it all. Have a round the world cruise, because if you save it, it will soon be worth half of what it used to be worth.

You should've come over here Morgan. The Conservatives have got loads of tricks like this up their sleeves (as, of course have the Liberals and Labour

They are all in such a poor state that they might as well amalgamate and save on administration costs, after all there's no difference in their policies to speak of.

One of the hundreds of reasons for voting Tory (or Liberal or Labour) is that you get to step over poor people in shop doorways on your way to the opera. Often they will lie down in puddles for you so you don't get your opera clothes wet. Who said chivalry was dead?

Well the first four are difficult but not impossible to explain; the last one beats the hell out of me though.

Wonder what their priorities are? Well, ask yourself, did benefit claimants ever give half a million to the Tory party (or the Liberals, or Labour)? QED.

Seems to be the answer to the above problems... YES anyone?

As always a click on a pic will enlarge it, so you can actually read what it says.

WE ARE IN THE RED, AND WE ARE STAYING THERE

Quantitative easing and low interest rates have not worked.

UK consumer borrowing is around £1.45 trillion and despite interest rates being at an historic low, it has not started to shrink. This is a serious matter, as interest rates are unlikely to stay this low for long and what should have been the ideal opportunity to pay down debt will have passed.

The Bank of England has warned that more than half the people with unsecured debts, such as credit cards or personal loans, are having a hard time coping. Of course the banks have been greedy with interest rates having risen from 17.8% in November 2007 to 18.7% now despite base rates dropping from 5.75% to 0.5%.

The Bank also found that nearly 50% of people still have fixed rate mortgages, which means that they are still paying off their housing debt at rates appropriate to 2007. That translates on an average mortgage to £680 a month compared with £530 a month for those on tracker mortgages.

Household income is reducing too as some people are taking drops in salary and others are losing jobs altogether. More than 50% of people are worried about their debt getting out of hand. People who have high mortgages compared to the value of their houses are struggling the most. Some of course were given 120% mortgages shortly before the crash in house prices and the house has depreciated in value by a further 10-20%. They can’t sell; they can’t move, to take up a job or for whatever reason. They are stuck with negative equity in a house they can't afford.

It is unlikely that there will be a consumer boom to lift the economy if people are spending their money paying off previous debts, unable to remortgage and unable to get further credit.

It seems to me inevitable that the inflation rate, already at 4.5%, is bound to rise as a result of quantitative easing... or money printing as I prefer to call it. When that happens surely interest rates, and thus mortgage rates, credit card and loans interest rates will rise. Add in to the mix, the VAT rise and increases in fuel and food, together with a drop in the level of services and the future looks rather grim.