HUNG PARLIAMENT ON THE CARDS, BUT WITH BROWN AS PM?

It is beginning to look like Gordon Brown may be prime minister after the Westminster election. A poll for the Sunday Times poll puts Labour only two points behind the Tories. The YouGov poll puts the Conservatives on 37%, to Labour’s 35% for Labour.

That is estimated to give Labour 317 seats to the Tories’ 263, nine short of an overall majority that would mean Brown could be prime minister in June.

The poll comes as a hammer blow to Cameron he prepares for a keynote speech to his party’s spring conference.

In an interview to the Sunday Times he defends himself against right-wing criticism that he has modernized too much, moved too far into the centre. He says: “Some people say to me, ‘Play things safe; try to win by default. The government is in a mess.’ I say, ‘No. This is the Conservative party that is offering radical change. I’m doubling up on change’.”

Although Cameron says he is unconcerned about the collapse in Tory support, the narrowing of the lead has been dramatic. Until recently the Tories were solidly 10-points ahead, but last Sunday’s YouGov poll had the gap at 6 points, suggesting a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party.

Frighteningly, today’s poll may suggest that claims about Brown’s tantrums and bullying may have helped him. Just 28% of people believe the prime minister is a bully and 50% agree he has a strong sense of right and wrong. (Scary. How clever is Mr Mandleson?) It also show concerns about Cameron’s Eton and Oxford background and lack of empathy with ‘ordinary’ people. Only 25% think that Cameron understands problems faced by “people like me”, compared with 35% for Brown. This may suggest that the right wingers, trying to push Cameron away from reforms, are wrong. He may need to push the Tories nearer to the ‘ordinary’ man. It also suggests that team Labour’s charm offensive on the prime minister’s being an ‘ordinary Joe’ may be working.

If the election result leaves Labour just short of an overall majority, Brown could battle on, with Labour as a minority government doing deals with smaller parties to get its legislation through parliament. That, however, is unlikely to last for long because it takes real political skill and incredible patience, and compromise to cope with a hung parliament and a minority government.

As has been shown with our own government much of the government’s legislation is lost or watered down because the opposition parties gang up to defeat you, regardless of their own views or the good of the country. The object becomes defeating the government, embarrassing the government, not running the country. It takes very mature opposition and a sense of duty to the country rather than party to make it work.

I seriously doubt if that exists at the Westminster assembly where self comes first, party second and somewhere way down the list, the voter. I favour a hung parliament because I can't bear the thought of Labour in government; I find the thought sickening...... and the Tories scare me. But Brown must not be their first minister. He's far too mad to be in charge for another 5 years.