Monday, 1 March 2010

There's only one real opinion poll, but it's cheering when the interim polls look good for you

I believe we should be wary of all opinion polls whether they say what we want to hear or not. But no one could deny that after the disappointing figures published at the weekend this latest poll is cheering news for a government into the second half of its tenure.

The SNP has welcomed this Ipsos/MORI poll of Scottish voting intentions, which shows the SNP 7 points ahead of Labour in Scottish General Election voting intentions, and just two points behind for the Wesminster General Election at 32%.

Nicola Sturgeon said: “This is a fantastic poll for the SNP and the Scottish Government, and hugely encouraging. We are neck-and neck with Labour in Westminster voting intentions, and we have a substantial 7-point lead in ScottishParliament voting intentions.

“Almost three years into government, the level of public support is extraordinarily strong and the First Minister’s ratings are also strong and positive.

“We have more support now than when we won the Holyrood election in 2007 –the other parties are all down and our Westminster support has nearly doubled since the last General Election.

The poll findings for those certain to vote are:

Westminster voting intentions (change since 2005 General Election in brackets):

SNP: 32% (+14)
Lab: 34% (-6)
Con: 17% (+1)
Lib Dem: 12% (-11)
Other: 5%

On these figures, the SNP would gain seats such as Dundee West, Aberdeen North, Ochil & South Perthshire, and Kilmarnock & Loudon from Labour; and Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, and Argyll & Bute from the LibDems.

Scottish Parliament constituency vote (change since 2007 Holyrood election in brackets):
SNP: 36% (+3)
Lab: 29% (-3)
Con: 14% (-3)
Lib Dem: 15% (-1)
Green: 3%
SSP: 1%
Other: 2%

On these figures, the SNP would gain 10 more constituency seats: Aberdeen Central, Falkirk East, Cumbernauld & Kilsyth, Dumbarton, Airdrie & Shotts, Linlithgow, East Kilbride, Midlothian, and Glasgow Kelvin from Labour; and Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale from the Lib Dems.

Results are based on an Ipsos MORI survey of 1,006 respondents between18-21 February.



  1. I am never sure about polls with as dramatic findings as this one.

    For example there has been two polls in the last month, one which showed the SNP on 21%, another showing them on 25% and now this one, wih them on 32%...they cannot all be right...the polls seem all over the place.

    And it isnt just the SNP which are scoring all over the place, the Scots Tories [my lot] have in the last month been recorded on 21%, 20% and now 17%..again this is too much of a difference between findings, and opinion cannot shift that dramatically in a space of only 2 weeks surely?

    So as I say, I am waiting for another poll to decide where on earth anyone is!

    ...but at the end of the day, lets just have the GE! Brown call the damn election and spare us the anxiety!

  2. Great news indeed. So much for all these polls that put Labour way ahead of the SNP or put the Tories neck and neck with them in Scotland. They are all just so much hot air. The only ones that count, in my opinion, are the ones that show consistent trends and not one off sensational results. The consistent trend is that the SNP Government and Alex Salmond are popular, are well ahead in Holyrood polls and giving Labour a run for their money at Westminster. And they show that the Tories are still not even on the map in Scotland.

    Thank you very much Jim Murphy, when exactly is it that the people are going to desert the SNP as you predicted. No sign of it so far. Gee what a long long honeymoon Alex is having with the Scottish electorate, longer than Gordon Brown’s one month and longer than Barak Obama’s one year. All the hot air from the major parties that the SNP don’t count is what is really not getting through to the voters.

  3. No Dean just recently they have all been all over the place. If you look at the trend it’s the ones showing the SNP way back that are out of kilter, and that is probably due to the fact they were commissioned by the Sun and the Times both recently rabid in their anti-SNP stories and editorials and in the way they release positively slated poll data. And both pro-Tory that may explain the off kilter Tory result as well. I suspected there was something wrong with those polls and I and not the only blogger to think that.

  4. Yep! and hardy Ha Ha to you

    The snp are toast just a matter of time and when the votes are counted bye bye snp

  5. As I said Dean: There's one poll that matters and that's when all of us get the chance to vote. In the meantime, they ask questions that demand a certain answer.

    Remember in the "House of Cards" (which I do realise was a fiction), that the PM had a pet pollster who phrased the questions so that they would elicit the most favourable reply.

    So I believe none of them.... but accept that they have value as publicity.... After some bad ones, it’s always good to have some good ones.

    I agree. Brown should just get on with it and call the Westminster Election. Let’s get the misery over, and let’s start to rebuild the place with whomever it is that wins. Dithering, however, is Brown’s most consistent trait (apart from throwing phones).

  6. Niko.... thanks for the pic mate....

    I didn't know you'd taken the cloth though.... I'd better watch the old language now I guess.....

    I'm looking forward to election night.... You bet I am.

    Hey Niko... just writing that reminded me of Spookie, it's just what he would have said.... I miss him, don't you?

  7. Tris

    Yeah he left a big void in me Life(Blog) must admit to finding it a bit less motivating to fill me blog up with interesting and amusing articles.

    I strongly suspect he has a crafty peek during his working hours of course

    perhaps we should start a meme

  8. I hope he does Niko. It was Spookums that started me doing this and it's been a lot of fun. I miss him too... lovely guy. I hope he and his girlfriend are doing well.

    What's a meme?