TODAY'S THE DAY

SOON ALL THE WAITING WILL BE OVER

Yes, dear readers, today we shall find out who will "lead" UKIP into the future.

Some say that many people have spoiled their papers and written "Come back Nigel, we love you". Well, when I say some, I think it was Nigel  actually, but no matter.

The UKIP conference takes place today in Bournemouth, England, and this afternoon will see its next leader announced and Nige will retire gracefully to the back seat. It promises to be exciting for them because normally their next leader has been their last leader.

Mr F has refused to back any of the contestants for the Great British Half Baked Off this year, but he did indicate that Channel Four might cover it next time round. He did admit that he had been dominant in the party. Looking around at others, like Lord Pearson of Rannoch, or David Coburn, I can't imagine why.

Farage is still the centre of attraction, however, for today at least, and was leading a tribute to the factoid that 100 years ago the first tanks were used in the Great War. (I can't help felling that politicians have played the First World War to death for publicity.) He didn't miss an opportunity to tell anyone who was listening that Britain had centuries of experience of dealing with European tyranny.  How fortunate, I thought, it is that there was never any tyranny here on these islands. Or indeed, is!

In any case, I digress. It seems to me looking at this list of policies, that maybe they could save a bit of money and just appoint Theresa May as their new leader. 

After all, it's pretty much a part time job, and all the time that Farage spend drinking smoking and carousing, Mrs May could spend running the Tories. All she would have to remember would be that when she had a purple leopard skin shoes on she was in favour of people being able to park for free in hospitals, and when she had her blue hat on, she expected them to be dropped at the hospital door by the chauffeur.

I hope it is her, because I've never heard of any of the other contestants and i can't be bothered learning a new name.

TRUMP RECRUITS FARAGE AS BACKER

Having been backed by Sarah Palin in the earlier stages of the campaign, Trump has now turned to the British version for support.  Somehow the irony of a foreign politician involving himself in an American presidential campaign, and at the same time complaining about a foreign politician involving himself in a UK campaign, seems to have escaped Nigel.

 Thanks to Danny for alerting us to this piece:

Random Thoughts

New Top Gear Team?

Tory contender Leadsom was ‘worst minister ever’, say civil servants who worked with her http://ebx.sh/29j1Ith 

Perfect for the job then...

Good Old Nigel. Resigns and says that he may drop into the parliament from time to time. Lovely job at £76,000 + expenses.

What a bloody choice.

The most important thing to Tessy is the ability to kill millions of people....

...Instead of this!

Standard Life (still in Scotland) having to suspend trading in its property accounts.

Oh look!

Please let me make more of a mess.

Munguin thought I should have a picture, seeing as I'm a leading contender. Fox and Crabb? Pffffff! Why bother?

PROJECT FEAR AND THE TORY LEADERSHIP BATTLE

As we've said before, Munguin's Republic hasn't really got an opinion on the current referendum. 

On balance, if pushed, we think that there would be comedic value in Boris as leader of the Conservative Party. There's a certain je ne sais quoi about the prime minister falling in a river, or being suspended from a high wire waving a rather too colourful flag.

And we reckon too, that there is a possibility a Boris government would hasten the end of the United kingdom, even more quickly than a David Cameron one would. Possibly starting in Northern Ireland and leaving the rest of us to follow.

But, as we say, without detailed economic evidence, or some arguments that have a measure of certainty (or even credibility), we honestly don't know who would make the better prime minister.

It's in a far off land of which we know precious little.

Most of the time, after the second week of the campaign when we were disgusted at the poverty of arguments, we've done our best to avoid reading about or listening to the claptrap from both candidates. 

The general impression has been that the two sides are competing for the position of Project Fear. At least in the Scottish referendum one side was putting forward a positive message.

However, today's pensions story caught our attention on Twitter.

According to Dodgy Dave, if the UK leaves the EU then pensions will be at risk. Yes, the Eton boy has succumbed to the kind of threats that Labour descended to when door knocking around Scotland back in 2014. If you vote to leave the UK, your pension in Scotland will disappear. Clearly it was nonsense, and even the repugnant DWP under IDS admitted it was fabrication, but it scared some older people into changing their minds. Scared them silly!

OK, he hasn't gone so far as to say that the pension will disappear, but he reckons that, if the UK leaves the EU, the triple lock  will be endangered because the country just won't have the money to pay the second  lowest pensions in the developed world. 

If it were true what would THAT say about our united kingdom, Dave? 

Something pretty shabby, we'd say

But, of course it is not true.

The EU has absolutely no say whatsoever in the pensions of UK citizens. We accept that if it did they would undoubtedly be higher. 

But then neighbouring countries outside the EU have HIGHER pensions. 

(Nor does it the EU dictate what benefits there should be for the sick, the disabled or the unemployed. Nor does it set taxation levels. The UK makes its mind up what pensioners are worth. Or rather how little it can get away with paying them.

But Dodgy Dave the Pig Man reckons that the economy will be so badly hit that cuts will have to be made.  This may or may not be true. I've not met anyone who knows one way or the other (although it is fair to say that in the period of change, as there will be when Scotland becomes independent, there will be a measure of uncertainly in financial markets).

Even accepting the possibility that there wouldn't be so much money around, at least for a while, it seems that Dave would choose to cut pensions for the elderly rather than say, cut the amount spent on nuclear weapons, rebuilding Westminster, embassies, royals, the house of lords, baubles for those and such as those, fighting wars all over the middle east, etc, etc. 

It wouldn't occur to him that clamping down on tax avoidance and evasion (well, of course it wouldn't) would be a better way to reduce spending in a potentially smaller economy?

We wonder if it turns out that without all the industrial and commercial regulations that the EU imposes, Britain does, as Bozo the Clown suggest, prosper outside the union, will pensions go up?

Aye right! I'll get my coat.

IN OUT, IN OUT, SHAKE IT ALL ABOUT...

This blog has taken a neutral view of the EU referendum from the date it was announced. 

There is a good deal that we like about the EU, and a good deal that we don't. 

In our opinion the main protagonists in the argument so far (as portrayed by the press) have been largely from the Tory Party which is successfully tearing itself apart. That, of course, is something we have no trouble with. Although we think it was madness to stir up this bother just as the Labour Party were descending into internecine warfare over Corbyn actually being a socialist. 

A better Tory leader could have managed the internal unrest over Europe, given that it has been bubbling under for years. But then, where would one of them come from?

We can't for the life of us imagine why anyone in their right minds would trust the word of people like Farage, Johnson, Gove, Duncan Smith or Grayling on the one hand, or the word of Cameron, Gideon, May on the other. They all appear to us to be quintessential incompetents. At best they are figures of fun.

We are lucky not to have done ourselves serious damage while falling about laughing at the similarity of the arguments of "Remain" in this EU referendum to those of "NO", "UKOK", or "Better Together" in our referendum. But then the arguments of the "Leave" side have been equally outlandish. It's been like there were two Project Fears at each other's throats.

Downright lying on both side, usually by people who KNEW they were lying (or were incredibly stupid) has been a mark of the campaigns. They are treating the public like it is comprised of terminally stupid gullible idiots, ready to believe the very worst/the very best according to their newspaper of choice.

We continue to take no side, and will do until the wretched  thing is over and done with. The only way to remain sane is to laugh like a drain.

European elections have always been low turnout affairs. We suspect the turnout for this referendum will be lower than that of 1975, in itself considered low at the time (42.2%), partly becasue of its proximity to other elections (parliamentary in Wales, NI and Scotland, and local in England), and partly because of the mess that the leaders in the Uk have made of the campaigns.

For a much more serious look at these matters we recommend the excellent Doug Daniel article here. It's really first rate.

We also recommend the continuing story of Britain in the EU by Dr Craig Dalzell of the Green party. Second part now up. 

**********

**********

LabRat ‏@ChildOfAlba  20m20 minutes ago

Next step in EURef. Jane Hill stands outside WM & does series of live updates backed by Brexit posters while ignoring Remain rally.

**********

**********

Tom Delargy ‏@derekrootboy  21m21 minutes ago

Unanimous Treasury Committee report says both REMAIN and LEAVE Campaigns are lying. It's true. Why should voters vote? #MassBoycott? #EUref

**********

**********

**********

**********

**********

The "we" we are using in this post is not royal in origins. Munguin has still not been assimilated into the royal family (although we might recommend him to princess Beatrice). 

We just thought that it was a collective thing, as opposed to Tris's opinion, and that it would be better expressed in the plural.

We hope you don't think we were being pretentious.

Pretentious? Nous?

HAMILTON TO LEAD UKIP IN THE SENEDD

So Neil Hamilton is at last a party leader, at least sort of. 

The man best known for the Cash for Question scandal and making prat of himself, is now the leader of Ukip in the Welsh Assembly.

No one could accuse him of having a dull career. After being beaten in the 1997 UK election by Martin Bell (of white suit fame), Hamilton "cashed" in on his "misfortune" (in being caught) by becoming a sort of W-list celebrity.

No matter how upper class English he sounds, Hamilton is, of course, Welsh, so there is no reason why he should not be a Welsh politician and group leader.

If you suspected that Hamilton would pretend to be a native Antarctican if it paid money, I'm thinking you wouldn't be far wrong, so the England world cup song (the word 'song' maybe stretches it a bit) is quite understandable.

Mr Hamilton and charming wife Christine (pictured above in the "I'm a Celebrity" show), who seems to share his passion for making money by whatever means possible, live in Wiltshire, and apparently it is from there that he will be running the Ukip organisation in the Cardiff assembly. He will be entitled to money for secondary accommodation in Cardiff and he intends to buy a caravan to tour his constituency.

He will not, however, take over as Welsh party leader. Nathan Gill, Mr Farage's choice, will continue to fulfil that role

Hamilton's election, and elevation to the leadership in the Senedd, has not pleased the English Party or its leader, Nigel Farage. This article explains just how much they dislike each other.

Isn't it typical of Ukip that only a few weeks before the referendum that they have wanted since their inception, instead of campaigning for a Brexit, they are having a civil war.

It's like Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon having a massive fall out in August 2014.

Seriously, no matter what your views are on the EU or Brexit, you have to admit that the public face of Ukip: Farage, Hamilton, Coburn, leaves a very great deal to be desired.

WE'RE BORED ALREADY

Goodness me. We are half way through the first day and already we are bored.

We vaguely listened and dozed through the Today Programme and later listened to a week in politics (after which Munguin threw the radio across the room). 

If this is the standard of debate, then it makes the Scottish Referendum campaign, and Project Fear, sound relatively adult.

Please, please Mr BBC DG, don't let's have Michael Forsyth all over the radio and telly until whenever, just becasue he's the only man standing who was close to Thatcher (her of the words NO NO NO and the actions YES YES YES!) and was party to her inner thinking on the Union.

Apart from Mental Micky,  all the commentators we heard were English, and it was interesting to hear how many times folk intimated that "England" would be fine on its own (if only). The Tory MP from Berwick, Ann-Marie Trevelyan was gracious enough to expand that to "Great Britain" and while the woman  was sickeningly sycophantic to Cameron, she was most certainly not having any of his "special relationship" nonsense.

Our favourite side-splitting comment was that Europe never listened to anything that the UK had to say, so we should leave. This despite the fact that the First Ministers of Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland have asked the UK to delay the referendum until the national elections are over, so that this one topic should not overwhelm the campaigns which are about so much more. 

At the time of writing, no such undertaking has been forthcoming. Maybe we should leave.

We thought some of these pictures would cheer you a little before tomorrows Soppy Sunday, when we promise there will be no mention of Europe!

Update!

So, now we know who will find themselves demoted if the answer is stay; and promoted if the answer is go. It's a calculated risk!

Sanjeev Kohli ‏@govindajeggy  30m30 minutes ago

David Baddiel should not be confused by the British Prime Minister David Bad-deal.

Update 2:

GREAT BRITISH VALUES IN BY-ELECTIONS

By-election spend is strictly controlled by law. Law which applies equally across parties and over the UK. Presumably there is no lower legal limit, but the upper legal limit is set at £100,000 per election.

It is illegal to exceed that amount. It is illegal to not mention in returns, expenses that have been incurred. It is illegal to doctor your receipts, by, say giving false addresses for hotel bookings, or use any other means to withhold pertinent information from the Electoral Commission.

Rental on premises, hotel accommodation and food, drink, tips, paid staff time, travel, etc, are eligible expenditure.

This is a Channel Four news investigation into three by-elections held in England in 2014, when there was a growing public interest in, and a real threat to the Tories from, UKIP, and when 2 Conservative MPs had triggered by-elections by defecting to UKIP. Two of them were won by UKIP, despite a massive Tory effort.

The investigation looks very specifically at the amount of money spent by the Conservatives and compares that to the expenditure that they declared...

...With interesting results.

Is this what the Tories mean by Great British Values? All in it together? The Big Society?

Channel Four has sent the information to the Electoral Commission. We await the outcome with interest.

WHO WILL BE THE NEXT TORY LEADER?

Mrs May's speech at the Tory Party Conference was nothing to do with the facts of immigration. Indeed most of what she spouted had already been disproved in papers her own department (a notoriously disorganised, out of control, left hand and right hand uncoordinated organisation) had published.

Even an article in the Telegraph (no lover of foreigners) from a couple of years ago, had admitted that rather than being a drain on our society's resources, immigrants were of net economic value to the country.

Indeed whether middle England likes it or not, we must have immigrants to sustain any kind of economic balance in the future, as the baby boomer generation moves into old age and beyond, living ever longer but without the ability to make positive economic contributions. 

The NHS, which will be in much demand by this group in the next 30 years or so, is particularly dependent upon immigrant doctors and nurses. 

Germany has recognised this as is demonstrated by its willingness to absorb large numbers of refugees from the Middle East, out of economic necessity rather than altruism.

People may not like foreigners moving into their country, but we suspect that they will like the alternative even less.

But no, Mrs May's speech was nothing to do with truth. It was much more to do with pitching her candidacy for the leadership of the Tory party when the Eton boy stands down. 

There is a growing list of candidates waiting to step into the expensive hand made shoes of Cameron. The usual suspects of course: Mad Boris, the eccentric Englishman, Gideon the coke man, Sajid Javid (a rising star), Elizabeth Truss (a second Thatcher), Philip Hammond (a remedy for insomnia), Graham Brady... (who he?) and the extremely unlovely Priti Patel, Grim Reaper Duncan Smith's underling at the DWP.

I've even heard it suggested that the Grim Reaper may make another attempt at the top job, however given the failure of his last foray into leadership I suspect that that is wandering into the realms of fantasy. Still, in a party which thought Michael Howard was a potential prime minister, who knows!

With today's announcement of a very well funded, big name supported, cross party organisation to fight against the government for Brexit, (rather than the shambolic, accident prone, Farage led, campaign we were expecting),  it may well be that Cameron's days of entertaining at Chequers (as he is today) will be over even sooner than he thought. 2017 ring a bell?

So which of these beauties will be the next leader of the Tories, and the prime minister of the UK? There's a poll in the right hand side bar. Let us know who you think will be leader.
**********

PS: For those who are interested in this sort of thing, it is Cameron's birthday today. More interestingly it's John Lennon's birthday. The difference is that the internet is full of wise things John Lennon said while it's full of stupid things David Cameron said.

Happy birthday John.

SNAPS ON SATURDAY EVENING

Thanks Jim. 

Apparently some young hooligans went wild protesting about nuclear weapons...

If politicians insist on bringing their wives into it, to make them look more human, they can't complain when people have a go at them too.
Does she have a lot of money?

How to get rid of 40 years of progress for your party in 5 short years?
Join up with the Tories.

Makes you think...

Deluded lunatic from the 19th century.

Despite this lying in the Clyde, some demented half wit Labour MP called Donohoe says there are Russian submarines
sailing up there. Not much bloody use, are they?
You could say, not worth the money.

Talking about being not much bloody use.
I don't think I've ever come across a more repulsive person than Hopkins. She makes Donohoe look clever.

So, this is the best possible reason I can think of for voting for Miliband
Of course the old bat won't go. Only in the UK could she make a living out of being that repugnant.

First for everything: Jim Murphy can't make it into the BBC. Must be very busy, or maybe he was just
 humiliated by two senior shadow cabinet members?

What can you say. Well, if that's the future for all of us, I suggest we keep the House of the Living Dead open and all pensioners be
given £300 a day plus expenses, tax free, for sleeping in comfort while being addressed as "my lord" and having their incontinence pads changed. Why should it just be the chosen few like Lord Bitch.

Funny... the Daily Mail said that the others went into a hug and left Farage out of it. Of course as Farage smells of booze and fags I would imagine why they would do that.  It would be like hugging a drunk ashtray. But it seems that they lied. I suppose Miliband could have given Farage a hug... although it is asking lot of the man.

Towards the right or the right...

Like we'd have forgotten, Eton boy.

Bloody hell Nick... even less popular than the racist drunk lot?

Well, at least someone voted for Willie Rennie, even if it was only his dog.

Ruth, I'm not sure Jim's tie is quite right...
You're his dresser aren't you?