Jeff Breslin has an interesting piece over at SNP Tactical Voting on the possible outcomes of the next Scottish General Election. His piece is knowledgeable and researched, based on fact and intelligent conjecture arising from these facts.
My thoughts are that the result may come down to how well the SNP can get across the fact that their failure to deliver on manifesto promises (LIT, Referendum, SFT, Minimum Pricing, etc) was entirely down to their being a minority government with opposition which was united in its desire to see the SNP fail. (Local income tax, for example, would have saved pensioners and low paid workers a lifestyle-changing amount of money and might well have been a huge incentive for the 2012 voter, and we will be paying for PFI till we die.)
It’s a question of communications.
It will be important for the SNP to make this clear. It’s not a party political point; it’s not a point of view. It’s just the truth. It depends how intelligently the Scottish voting public responds to that.
We have had three plus years of minority government, which has worked to prove that the SNP are not the “basket cases” that they were portrayed as. They have successfully administered the country in a devolved situation, and so by extrapolation may be considered to be capable taking our nation back to independence.
Jeff rightly says that there are two parties in contention. But he also points out that other parties can have a considerable effect on the outcome. The Tories are bound to lose votes because of the English government’s harsh policies, and the Liberals will surely be doubly hit by the fact that they too have been involved in this, and by the fact that it does seem to be that if you vote Liberal, you surely won’t get Liberal, but they will help whoever offers them the best Cabinet seats!
Their loss of votes will have to go somewhere. They are up for grabs. Not huge sections of the vote, but enough to make a difference given the slender “majority” held by the current government.
Jeff analyses the “Gray” effect, because after all Gray and the Noble and Rt Hon Baron McConnell, the Farm Boy (it’s good to associate yourself with the farm yard when you are about to take your seat in the House of Lords), are two very different kettles of fish. Whatever you think of their politics, Jack is immediately charismatic and Iain is.... well.....aptly named.
Given the arrangement of Labour’s prop (when in government in Scotland) with a certain other group of politicians in London, which may or may not still be in place, what are the chances of Tavish being allowed to go into government with Iain Gray’s Labour? Slim, I’d have thought. Oh yes, they are busy talking about all kinds of autonomy for the parties in Scotland, but they won’t have anything sorted by the time campaigning begins....
So not only do we have the Iain Gray effect, we also have the Iain Gray in minority government effect. I’d make two points on this which may or may not be associated. Firstly minority government takes a great deal of political skill, nous, patience and intelligence. Secondly, Labour send their “best” people to London.
So, it’s all to play for.... but just a thought: would it be too bad for the SNP to have another 4 years in opposition, having proved their ability to run a credible government under the most difficult of circumstances?
I think not.
My thoughts are that the result may come down to how well the SNP can get across the fact that their failure to deliver on manifesto promises (LIT, Referendum, SFT, Minimum Pricing, etc) was entirely down to their being a minority government with opposition which was united in its desire to see the SNP fail. (Local income tax, for example, would have saved pensioners and low paid workers a lifestyle-changing amount of money and might well have been a huge incentive for the 2012 voter, and we will be paying for PFI till we die.)
It’s a question of communications.
It will be important for the SNP to make this clear. It’s not a party political point; it’s not a point of view. It’s just the truth. It depends how intelligently the Scottish voting public responds to that.
We have had three plus years of minority government, which has worked to prove that the SNP are not the “basket cases” that they were portrayed as. They have successfully administered the country in a devolved situation, and so by extrapolation may be considered to be capable taking our nation back to independence.
Jeff rightly says that there are two parties in contention. But he also points out that other parties can have a considerable effect on the outcome. The Tories are bound to lose votes because of the English government’s harsh policies, and the Liberals will surely be doubly hit by the fact that they too have been involved in this, and by the fact that it does seem to be that if you vote Liberal, you surely won’t get Liberal, but they will help whoever offers them the best Cabinet seats!
Their loss of votes will have to go somewhere. They are up for grabs. Not huge sections of the vote, but enough to make a difference given the slender “majority” held by the current government.
Jeff analyses the “Gray” effect, because after all Gray and the Noble and Rt Hon Baron McConnell, the Farm Boy (it’s good to associate yourself with the farm yard when you are about to take your seat in the House of Lords), are two very different kettles of fish. Whatever you think of their politics, Jack is immediately charismatic and Iain is.... well.....aptly named.
Given the arrangement of Labour’s prop (when in government in Scotland) with a certain other group of politicians in London, which may or may not still be in place, what are the chances of Tavish being allowed to go into government with Iain Gray’s Labour? Slim, I’d have thought. Oh yes, they are busy talking about all kinds of autonomy for the parties in Scotland, but they won’t have anything sorted by the time campaigning begins....
So not only do we have the Iain Gray effect, we also have the Iain Gray in minority government effect. I’d make two points on this which may or may not be associated. Firstly minority government takes a great deal of political skill, nous, patience and intelligence. Secondly, Labour send their “best” people to London.
So, it’s all to play for.... but just a thought: would it be too bad for the SNP to have another 4 years in opposition, having proved their ability to run a credible government under the most difficult of circumstances?
I think not.
