Sunday, 9 December 2012

THE REAL TRUTH ABOUT THE ECONOMY


As ever, you had to scour the small print to find the bad news that George Osborne chose to leave out of his Autumn Statement. So here, complete with references to the OBR document, are the ten stats that the Chancellor would rather you didn't know, thanks to the New Statesman. 
In deference to those who are sick of the sight of posh boy Osborne's face, I decided to use the face of his deputy, who presumably was aware of  what was not being announced to the general public, and so is equally guilty of treachery. Actually, they have the same sort of smirk, don't you think.
1. The economy is expected to shrink in the current quarter, with the OBR forecasting a contraction of 0.1 per cent. (p. 48 OBR document). It states that "headline GDP growth is likely to be negative in the final quarter of 2012 as the effect from the Olympics reverses." The day before the last set of growth figures were released, Cameron boasted that "the good news will keep coming". It's now clear that it won't.
2. Despite the government's promise to "make work pay", sixty per cent of the real-terms cut to benefits (they will rise by just 1 per cent for three years) will fall on working households. (Resolution Foundation) A working family on £20,000 with two children will lose £279 a year from next April.
3. The recent fall in unemployment is expected to be reversed as the jobless total rises from 2.5 million to 2.7 million next year. (p. 83 OBR document)
4. Were it not for the inclusion of the expected £3.5bn receipts from the 4G spectrum auction - which hasn't taken place yet - the deficit would be higher this year (£123.8bn) than last year (£121.4bn). (p. 5 OBR document).
5. The measures announced by Osborne are expected to increase GDP by just 0.1 per cent over the forecast period. (p. 51 OBR document). This was no Autumn Statement for growth.
6. Earnings are forecast to rise at a slower rate than inflation until the second quarter of 2014. (p. 86 OBR document). By then, the median full-time wage will be 7.4 per cent below its 2008 level.
7. Public sector job cuts will reach 1.1 million by 2018 (p. 83 OBR document), reducing government employment to its lowest level in post-war history.
8. An extra 400,000 people will be dragged into the 40p tax band by 2015-16, paying an extra £117 per year.
9. The government is expected to lose £16.5bn on its stakes in the Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds, up from an estimate of £14.3bn in March. (p. 162 OBR document).
10. Osborne's decision to cut the top rate of income tax from 50p to 45p means the 8,000 people earning a million pounds or more will receive an average tax cut of £107,500 from next April.

22 comments:

  1. As the bullingdon boys are keen to say 'we're all in this together' only they're in the clover and we're in the merde!

    Is it my imagination but is the ginger minger's face collapsing in on itself in that first pic?

    Or has he just lent his wallys th Niko?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Nah it is his I'm all right Jack look as I have got my next seat sorted.

    ReplyDelete
  3. That's the look he's been copying from George Osborne, Boorach. It says... huh, peasants, I've got a ministerial car now, so you can go and naff off.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ah yeah CH, the "if I'm not in government as the Tory members for ...wherever, I've also got a few nice directorships lined up. I'll never be poor again, unlike you tossers who will likely never be rich again..." look!

    Us and them...

    ReplyDelete
  5. It was not only the pointers you've found Tris but Auld Acquaintance found this gem as well!

    http://www.auldacquaintance.wordpress.com/

    Yet again Scotland is put in the position of being Westminster's testing ground. Memories of Poll Tax any one?

    Are we on the verge of seeing another Poll Tax protest?

    Poll Tax Protest Mark II anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Might not only be poll tax II Arbroath... Could well be 'fracking' protests as well. Have a look at the Newsnet piece. The whole of the central belt bould be turned into a giant gas well at the behest of londinium!

    ..... and where are the gas fired power stations to be built?

    ReplyDelete
  7. it's quite scary Arbroath.

    I'm not a Luddite. I believe in trying new things and being innovative, but they tested some of this out in Blackpool area and it appears to have caused an earthquake of sizable proportions (things falling off shelves and breaking... )

    OK that wasn't scary by the standards of Japan or Turkey or San Francisco... but it'e enough to worry you.

    Then there is the contamination of ground water. And the points made about danger to railways, and to housing, and the leaking of radio activity... Not to mention the 600+ chemicals that are used in the process.

    We don't want to lay waste to our land, just when we have the chance to get it back.

    I would have thought that planning permission would be required for this kind of thing and can be withheld by councils if enough people object... or by the Scottish government if the danger is thought to be too great.

    I don't want to get in the way of progress. We need gas and to have it a bit cheaper and not depend on Russia would be a good thing for all of us. There could well be some proper jobs involved too. That has to be a real incentive, but I want to know that Scottish authorities have looked very carefully into this before they start blowing up the central belt.

    Why do they never try this kind of crap out in London?

    ReplyDelete
  8. This is the problem Boorach it is LONDON that is dishing out the licences. However I believe it is Edinburgh that holds ultimate authority over the planning permission for these drilling operations.

    As far as the gas powered stations are concerned now let me see..... it wouldn't be England would it? I have read NOTHING about any of these stations being built in Scotland.

    Same oh Same oh Westminster Strip Scotland bare, leave her lands to rack and ruin and to hell with what any of the local population think or even want!

    Anyone else think this smells of Highland Clearances Mark II?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Our gas, their electricity...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Arbroath: If it is not pretty safe (nothing is 100% safe), and certified by people we trust...and that certainly doesn't mean the English Environment Department, we should definitely refuse permission.

    Let them try out their technology in their own country, and cause havoc with earthquakes and cancer and poisoned water.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I'm with you Tris on the cheaper gas anlge and jobs front etc but I will NEVER support anything like this fracking idea.

    This video gives a fairly interesting insight into the operations of fracking

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEB_Wwe-uBM&feature=youtu.be

    If nothing else the fear of cancer and other serious illnesses is enough for me to be totally against fracking. Not only the health of humans but animals and other wildlife as well. This is just too high a price to pay in anyone's book I reckon.

    Watching the video you find out that 5,000 GALLONS of poisonous chemicals are used in each fracking operation. that's 5,000 gallons too much for me.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I don't know if the usual planning route would apply as it's for the harvesting of natural resources.

    It may be that, just as in the North Sea wasteminster may hold the strings with it being a reserved matter. They are the proles who, apparently, have already issued some 20 licences.

    would you purchase a licence without being 100% certain that you can begin the option?

    ReplyDelete
  13. No. You're right. I wouldn't, Boorach.

    They have, it would appear overridden our rights, as usual.

    Thanks for the video Arbroath. I'm off to watch it now.

    ReplyDelete
  14. The real truth?

    1. You cant withdraw state spending when there is no consumer or private sector supply/demand to pick up slack

    2. Sacking millions of public sector workers means a higher welfare bill ... and a lower tax yield.

    3. Vetoing treaties that could solve the euro crisis won't help stabilise our biggest export market

    CONCLUSION: The coalition simply are totally AND UTTERLY out of their depth.

    Ed Balls was right to say 'too far, too fast' back in 2010. Question is, where to go from here?

    Any takers? 'cos I have no ideas.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Independendence for a start then stop bailing out corrupt banks and put them on trial for crimes against humanity including the politicians who allowed this situation to occur as it was all avoidable if they were honest brokers.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Well I agree completely with that Dean.

    But I did say to you 3 years ago that Cameron and his coterie were totally unsuitable for the job of government. They had no knowledge, no experience of anything... and they didn't even know how ordinary life worked.

    ...you know, you go out earn money and then you can go and buy something.

    They have made a complete mess of it.

    I've no idea where to go. We need to take all teh QE money and put it inot the economy, not the banks.

    We should have done what Iceland did. Of course no no no. Mr Brown called them intentional terrorists.

    Nob head. There's nothing to pick and chose between them. They are all completely bloody useless.

    I'd ask a delegation from the Nordic countries, Switzerland and Lichtenstein to come over and give us the benefit of their wisdom, experience and financial nous.

    That's about my only idea. Coz there's no one one here that knows how to fix it.

    ReplyDelete
  17. There is only one problem with the unsuitability of Cameron and his buddies getting into power in 2010 Tris. If it wasn't Cameron then who?

    Unfortunately there was only one alternative to Cameron and that was, drum roll please, the one the only Gordon Brown, and we are all aware of how "brilliant" he ran the country for 13 years. Oops sorry I've just had a newsflash passed to me, he wasn't as brilliant as HE thought he was. :lol:

    So I think the bottom line of the 2010 General Election is that no matter who you voted for we were in for an absolute thrashing from Westminster. Austerity was coming down the line and no matter who ended up in number 10 the old, the ill, the infirm, the disabled, the unemployed were going to be hit big time.

    ReplyDelete
  18. No I don't think that Brown would have been any better.

    The rush would be at all accounts to save anyone who is rich from suffering in any meaningful way.

    Yes, they can fiddle around the edge with their taxes, but it won't change their way of life one little bit.

    Only the middle earners will feel stretched increasingly more so as you work your way down.

    Those with absolutely nothing except subsitence will soon not be able to subsist, and will have to steal to live.

    Oh well, hopefully we will be out of it before that kind of sh*t hits the fan.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Tris

    The sad reality is that this will not be reported in any meaningful way. The people we need to convince are the labour supporters of Scotland and they just won't get the info and those that do won't care. We will get more of the Euro rubbish and Moore talking down Scotland all over the world.

    We will get more of Curran and Lamont and Davidson and Moore, sad really ignoring facts when they can tell lies. I just wish the SNP would call the euro bluff. Say that we will have referendum within a year of independence and let the people decide, that will scare the crap out of the other parties and is the right thing to do. I just don't know anyone who feels this is a big issue as far as the debate goes, it's the politicians on the gravy train that appear to be afraid.

    As far as fracking goes, no fracking goes cheeky. It feels a bit like the million drilling licenses that have recently been put on the market for the North Sea. Let's rob the country blind just in case they do vote yes, just look at every former colony apart from Canada and the US, we robbed them blind. My wife is from Ghana and you should see the mess the UK left there, it was the gold coast but not after the empire left, Scotland be warned.

    Alexander, don't you just want to slap him and anyone who votes for him. How did he ever get elected is beyond me, tha man is just nasty and looks nasty, talks nasty and although I have never met probably smells nasty.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Great all encompassing post Bruce.

    They lie, I expect because they, personally, are looking at a far less prosperous future than they would otherwise. People like Curran could have expected to get to Cabinet rank in the UK, and travel the world being "important" (even if the prefix "self" should be added). They could them expect to end up in the House of the Living Dead at a nice £300 a day for turning up and having a subsidised lunch followed by a subsidised drink of 10.

    Instead at best they will have to put up with being mere Scottish politicians. Not important and nothing to sort out but drains and the A9. No fat house of retirement either... You can see why they worry.

    All teh people I know who knock on doors ... not one has ever been asked about ethe EU. it's a non starter.

    Interestingly the papers which most berate the EU (Mail, Express, etc,) are bemoaning the non fact that Barrossa has said Scotland would be out.

    Good, we'll be out, why not. It didn't do Norway any harm.

    And Scotland, unlike the UK doesn't need the EU to ensure that no incredibly right wing policies stripping ordinary people of every right they ever won.

    Moreover, it is quite possible that the UK will be out of the EU by 2014. Either because Cameron has been forced to offer a vote to keep his right wing from defecting to UKIP, or because the rest of them will have got so sick of Mr Know it All that they'll chuck us out.

    Let's hope we can stop or disrupt the fracking before these bastards steal everything we have for themselves.

    Yes, I'd love to slap Alexander. I don't know how he smells but he has all but become a Tory. And that smells bad to me... and to Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Oh... yeah. I've always said that the UK left its colonies in a complete mess, and if they are corrupt they had bloody good teachers in the colonial days.

    From Buckingham palace down this country is rife with fiddling.

    Fair play my butt.

    ReplyDelete