Is it possible? Could it happen?
Yes, unlikely thought it may seem; yes it could.
Just as across Scotland, the polls have shown a swing to the SNP; there is a suspicion that the mood of voters in East Lothian may have swung the SNP’s way, enough to win a seat for Dave Berry. Not important really, you might think, until you stop and think...East Lothian is the seat of Iain “the snarl” Gray, better known perhaps as Elmer “the snarl” Fudd!
In what Labour thought would be a cast iron safe seat for them, canvass returns, taken over 25% of the voters, suggest that it’s possible that Gray could lose.
Gray has not been seen much in the constituency for months. It’s been suggested that his training for the presidential-style debates with Alex Salmond (and yes Mr Cameron, Ms Goldie took part in them too...la presidentee?) has taken up most of his time, whereas Mr Berry has been working the constituency for months.
Secondly the constituency which delivered Iain Gray a 7.1% lead over the SNP has undergone boundary changes, which would reduce the lead to 6.7%. This means that a "swing" of only 3.4% would be needed to oust him. Polling evidence suggests that the Liberal vote collapse is benefiting the SNP more than Labour, and given that 18.5% of East Lothian voters backed the Liberals in the last election, their vote could make a huge difference.
Add to that the likelihood that, as Gray is roundly disliked, Tory and Liberal voters may vote tactically to remove him, and that he is not on the regional list, we could be saying ‘bye bye’ to the snarly one sooner rather than later.
Imagine a new parliament without Mr Gray, and with Labour, either in opposition or forming a government, without a leader. It makes for interesting thoughts.
We should not get o
ur hopes up of course. There is still all to play for in the constituency, as there is in the country, but a loss would give Iain Gray his only chance to make history by being the first party leader in Scotland to be ousted by the public at an election.
Iain “the snarl” Gray, copied shamelessly from a great blog, http://holyroodhorrors.blogspot.com/ which I just discovered... and our man, trying on his “tails” lest he should get that last minute call to take the place of the Crown Prince of Bahrain, or the King of Cambodia, who appear to have left the Windsors with two extra dinners and a bottle of Chablis.
Tris
ReplyDeleteIf Gray does go I think we should start campaigning for the "dream team" to replace him.
Just think, Jackie Ballie as leader with The boy Baker as the deputy dog.
Its almost enough to make you want to join the Labour party just to be able to vote for the dream team.
Bring it on as bendy would say.
What a joy.
ReplyDeleteBaker is so unappealing as a person and dim, it's almost like he was written as the ugly dumb boring bloke that no one likes in a comedy show.
I dunno about Jackie though. I've always kinda rated her (for a labour person), although she gets hammered by Alex. She's got a hard job, up against the ultra efficient Nicola.
But I don't know THAT much about her, so maybe I'm way off line.
Jackie the Hutt as Labour leader in Scotland ?
ReplyDeleteFree pies and cakes. Excellent !
Ian would be used to it if he does lose. Did he not get dumped by the voters of Edinburgh Pentlands in 2003 when they realised what a load of rubbish he was and preferred the Tories David McLetchie. Interestingly Mr Grays vote there in 2003 went down by 5.3%. Labour rules, I understand, do not permit you to have the belt and braces of also being on the safe billet of a regional list. So if he loses his seat he is out on his ear and wont be First Minister after all. It seems, however, that he is so busy running and hiding in sandwich shops and just generally doing very badly in the whole election that he is not taking care of what is going on in his own backyard.
ReplyDeleteThanks very much to the English Prime Minister who this week left the lofty towers of the Westminster Executive to come and give Auntie Annabel a hand. Some would say she does not need a hand from a half-wit like him. Anyway, his issued one of the weakest broadsides against Alex Salmond I have ever seen. Doubtless he thought (if he ever does) that he was being hilariously funny when he described Alex as “Presidente Salmondo” a South American President (maybe he had Mrs Thatcher’s great friend General Pinochet in mind, only he did not feel the need to be elected or approved of). He probably thought that we would all fall off our chairs, sides splitting at his great riposte and extraordinary wit. Boy he got that wrong as nothing annoys the Scots more than a stuck-up English twit coming and being down-right rude about the most popular First Minister we have ever had. What a cretin!
While the SNP is having to make do with prominent Scottish union and business leaders. Scottish Labour and Iain Gray are being roundly endorsed by English transvestite and would be comedian Eddie Izzard. He whizzed up to Scotland the other day to tell us all to vote for Iain as Scottish Labour would do such a great job if only they got the chance! Thanks for that Eddie! Now off you pop back to England where you will safely never be governed by team Gray. What’s next for Eddie? Is he off to France to tell them what a good job their version of the Labour party would do given half the chance? I’m amazed he has any time for comedy what with keeping up to date with the various doings of Labour parties in countries other than his own!
ReplyDeleteThe polls are getting ludicrous.
ReplyDeleteIf the current ones were to be believed, the recent YouGov for example would see the SNP + Greens + Margo command an independence parliament, which would be the first of its kind in over 300 years. Radical stuff frankly.
But at this rate, Labour seems to have past its apogee and is now entering its slow, long term decline and collapse; much like the ancient Tory vote did after 1959 ...
Goodbye Liebore ... cannae say I'll miss ye once ye go!
That's what I like about you Hugh. You can see the positive in any situation.
ReplyDeleteActually I was thinking, Munguin, that Mr Cameron, who is a de facto president (the head of state having virtually no powers), was acting like an Englishman on one of these nasty cheap flights from Sheffield to Benidorm, that his ilk hate so desperately. Add an "o" to things to make them Spanish... "two-o beer-os por favor barman-o", say they to giggles from their lady friends..."Oh don't 'e speak good Spanish your Bert?"
ReplyDeleteAnd yes Munguin, you were right to point out the close relationship between the British government and South American dictators every bit as frightening as some of the Windsors close friends!!
Well Dean, I don't know if they are ridiculous... I think we all treat this kind of thing with an element of suspicion. Polls are only polls.
ReplyDeleteEven a canvass of 25% of the population in East Lothian is considered dubious...
But, the governance of Scotland has been good over the past 4 years, and it seems that most people agree with that; even those from other parties.
At the same time, the only possible alternative is a bumbling muppet, so many it's not THAT big a surprise (or that big a compliment to the SNP).
I was surprised that Cameron, not overly popular (at least a damned sight less popular than Mrs Goldie) in Scotland would chose to make a personal insult to a very popular (even amongst Labour and Tory voters) first minister. It seemed that the likelihood of people changing their minds over Salmond on HIS say so were slim... indeed it was much more likely to have the opposite effect.
Malcolm Rifkind noted that Thatcher was disliked in Scotland. She was a woman (a first at that time...and even today), she was English and she was bossy. The combination was fatal. Mr Cameron doesn’t suffer from the first thing, but he is English and he is bossy.
Since devolution, because Edinburgh affects people’s lives on a day to day basis probably more than London, there is a sharper divide between the two countries. The London pm is seen to be the English first minister...which is what he is, as well as being the British prime minister. There is a feeling of “poking nose in” when people come up here telling us how to vote, especially when they won’t have to put up with the consequences.
Cameron should remember that in trying to dissuade people from voting SNP, he is only likely to get a labour administration. I don’t think he’d like the results of that much himself... but one thing for sure is that we wouldn’t. Safe in London, or Oxfordshire, Mr Cameron wouldn’t have to live with the consequences of Labour’s mad governance of Scotland, bad enough at any time, but under a dimwit like Gray!?!?!
I don't think Cameron; in fairness like all English-based politicians; really understands how the Scottish voting trends work.
ReplyDeleteUK Polling reported on a poll of grass roots party members, which showed how they were most likely to for tactically (other than their own lot) and the polls show that LibDems in many key marginals were more likely to pluck for us Scots Tories, and SNP were NOT going to pluck for Tories tactically (literally, 0% switch tactically from SNP to Tory). So clearly Cameron doesn't understand Scottish voters.
BUT, here is an interesting little thing, most Tory voters in Scotland were more likely to vote tactically for the SNP than anyone else (we had only about 3% switch to LibDem, so clearly it isn't a mutual switch affect at all).
So the long and the short of it? Cameron if he had any understanding of Scottish voters would have spent all his time targeting LibDems NOT the SNP or Labour. 'Cos they voters AINT gonna vote for us EVER.
I think he has been badly advised, again.
ReplyDeleteI don't think that any London party ever understands the Scottish electorate. It's simply not important enough.
But it would be a good idea if they'd just stay away and not poke their noses in... Annabel is far more popular than he is. I'd say overall he was a hindrence to her rather than a help, although I'm sure she'd be fat too polite to say that.
Labour is dead (Again)Ho hum wishful thinking
ReplyDeletewe are still here and are gonna be after May 5th
Labour 44%
ReplyDeletesnp 29%
Here
we will see
Hmmmmm
ReplyDeleteThere's a big place in a country just to the south of Scotland Niko. It's called Westminster. It where a bunch of crooks hang out and try to work out how to fiddle their expenses.
It is also where the nasty overlords that hold out country in thrall abide.
This poll is for that place...
Duh!
Mister MixedPickle: those figures are for the Westminster Executive, as I think you know. How pathetic that you have to stoop to such tactics, you really must be in trouble.
ReplyDeleteNiko,
ReplyDeleteThe Scottish sample size is a fankly pathetic and irrelevant 228 ... not much evidence tbh.
But if you are Labour ... straws are something to grasp at ...
Iain's done a runner again.
ReplyDeleteDeano
ReplyDeletewell its better than wat you grasp at late at night under ya bed sheets ya dirty little Tory fecker..
CH.... Corker. The bloke just can't help it. Whenever he sees anything coming his way, he flees, sometimes into shops, sometimes out of them.
ReplyDeleteYou have to give him his versatility but running away is hardly the best knee jerk reaction when you are first minister.
You know, I read a political biography by Lance Price of his days in the Blair/Brown governments and how they used to despare of the Scottish team under Dewar. Can you imagine how much fun they are having with this lot.. and can you imagine the biographies in 10 years' time?
Instead of making unpleasant innuendos, why don't you go try to knock some sense into that loony leader of yours?
ReplyDeleteAlex Salmond ran away from him? .... Ha ha ha ha ha.
What is he drinking? Some hallucinogenic I suspect.
That last comment was, of course, for niko....
ReplyDeleteNiko,
ReplyDeleteNot my fault that Labour are a busted flush, and the only good poll is one with a tiny TINY sample size! I mean really?
Better listen to what Tris is telling you now, knock some sense into Labour leader Mr Whitsisface (I forget his name, me and the rest of Scotland).
p.s. Tiny & Niko; yes - accurate :P
ReplyDeleteAlternative garden party to provide 'antidote' to royal wedding hype
ReplyDeleteI read that there was one street party in a rather select part of Dundee.
ReplyDeleteIf we tried to have one there would be a riot... and in any case the road surface is so pot holed the tables would fall over.
Let's get the bloody thing over and done as quick as possible.
This is worth a glance.
ReplyDelete