This blog supports Scottish Independence. Comments on it, and contents of linked blogs, do not necessarily reflect Munguin's opinions.
I'm staying up until Jackie Baillie sings. Anyone else?
I wasn't planning to stay up but can't get to sleep so might as well keep an eye on things! Several tweeters predicting a very bad night for Labour in Glasgow. Turnout very low there too. My result not due until 4am ish and we'll have a good turnout - always do. Heard Rutherglen might declare jut after midnight. Apparently Plaid predicted to be the 2nd largest party in Wales.
oh ffs. Double orangs on Sunday please! But at least Carlaw's speech is magnanimous which is more than can be said for Tavish Scott.
How on earth did the conservatives get 19% of the vote in Hamilton Larkhall & Stonehouse? They didn't even put up a fight. At least Labour made a half arsed effort.I think our problem is very similar to the referendum one. The BBC identified the issue the SNP were vulnerable on, and then hammered it. And for many I'm afraid that is Independence.I boycott the bastards and their tax. If you have not done so, please stop paying.And I hope our government - if we form the next one - declines to provide spokesmen to them, refuses to allow them accredited status, and does not provide guests for any of their Shortbread radio or TV programming.And Aberdeenshire? The oil price floors, and they think they are better together? |Duh!Jabba as next Labour leader? Oh good grief, what have you done?Saor Alba.
well if you paid the bbc tax you'd have heard Glen Campbell stating that there is a strong Unionist tradition in Larkhall (ahem) so I guess they voted for the Ruth Davidson No surrender party.
Oooops. I fell asleep.They are saying Kez will stay, but will she want to. And what about Sarwar?We'll have extra orangs on Sunday PP.
Ruth delivered. I'm speechless. I never saw us having 31 MSPs. Literally...what just happened?Goodbye SLAB, nice knowing you. Time to hold the SNP to account and stop any talk of another separatist referendum.
Well, you must have seen something good in SLAB a couple of years ago, as you supported them.But you know, you'll have to do a great deal more than stop a referendum, and fist opposition party you may be, but you have fewer than half the seats of the SNP.
Ruth delivered? It was the right wing labour unionist orange brigade, that delivered Ruth.
Unfortunately, the result overnight shows what a spectacular failure it can be to try and run a single campaign message across vastly differing regions in this PR system. Even a cursory look at three regions (Central, Glasgow and West Scotland) show that SNPx2 was a pretty silly policy and has resulted in the SNP list votes returning unionist candidates. The list votes should have been directed to a more independence friendly party to nullify unionist participation. Hopefully we learn for the next time!!
I agree. I didn't pretend to know the ins and outs of the system and I voted SNP twice. It did make a difference here in Galloway as the SNP got represented on the list. But elsewhere all those hundreds of thousands of votes counted for nought, allowing loads of red and blue Tories in. I know many doubt the Greens but more of them would have been better than the British nationalist parties. Maybe I'm wrong? Interested to hear other views.
I suspect that the experts like Wings and Scot goes pop will discuss this after they have had a rest. (They were up all night, commenting on Twitter).I think, as has been said over and over again, you can't vote tactically unless you know for sure how everyone else is going to vote.
That really is my point. In the three regions I have detailed we did know that a landslide was coming. SNP supporters could have voted tactically in these regions and we should have been shouting it from the rooftops. I can only assume that the SNP campaign were scared to go off the SNPx2 message just in case it caused issues in regions where we had a battle on our hands. Sorry, I personally can't accept that argument, it just isn't good enough. The fact is, 376010 SNP list votes in those three regions produced ZERO independence supporting MSP's. If these votes had been given to the Greens (only real alternative in my view!!) then they would have 10 more MSP's and both the Tory and Labour parties would have 5 less MSP's each.In my region of Central Scotland the lowest vote percentage on a constituency for the SNP was 48% with the lowest majority being 3779 and this only being this low because the Greens had a vanity candidate in that constituency (Coatbridge and Chryston). Unless the country goes to shit or the SNP turns batshit crazy before the next set of elections none of these will be lost at the next SP elections. All of the Glasgow and West Scotland SNP constituencies are pretty much bullet proof in my opinion for the next election as well.So what is the answer? Vote SNPx2 again and watch 10 unionist MSP's get in when they could have been stopped!!We need to get smarter. Sadly, the result overnight has given the unionists new fire in their belly and we are sadly partly to blame.
I'm feeling the need to respond to this drivel.If you get 100% of the list vote, you get 100% of the list MSPs. Simple as that.SNP list votes have won list seats when they've swept the constituencies before, and they probably will again. Its just that this time, the unionist parties got their vote out.And, lets be honest here, the maths about the polls and the error margins hasn't changed, just because we can look in hindsight at the last election.
Holy shit!!! I'm speaking drivel but you try to obfuscate by asserting a particular result could be obtained by utilising nonsense figures.Who gives a fuck if 100% of the list vote gives you 100% of the MSP's. When the average of all polls is running at 44.2% for the SNP list vote this is frankly an obtuse statement at best.The facts are that in their wildest dreams the SNP were only going to get 50% of the list vote. The running poll of polls was showing 44.2% immediately before the election. For the SNP to score a list vote seat in Glasgow they would have needed 59.5% of the list vote, in Central Scotland they would have needed 53.7% of the list vote and in West of Scotland they would have needed 53.4% of the list vote. Such percentages were never going to happen and to try and suggest they ever were is talking actual drivel.I want to see unionist parties removed from the Scottish Parliament with a massive majority of pro-independence parties replacing them. I don't really care if the SNP has an outright majority or not. I actually think having a higher level of parliamentary scrutiny put on them will make them a better government. Wholesale removal of the unionist parties from the SP would move the independence agenda on much further than a tiny majority for the SNP - in my opinion.To get a massive parliamentary majority of pro-independence voices then the list vote currently given to the SNP must be given to other parties. I do stress this only applies in regions where the SNP is utterly dominant on the constituency vote.
On the surface,my constituency of Edinburgh South (Southern) appears to be the last bastion of "British" socialism in Scotland (Red Morningside!).The reality,of course,is somewhat different.We have a large number of No voting Middle class professionals who vote tactically to keep the SNP out.There are probably a number of reasons why they do this but being genetically programmed south of the border is a factor for some.It will be quite ironic that as "British" Labour lurches to the left,Morningsiders,Grangers etc will be seen as supporters of radical left wing policies.I think not but that is what happens when you vote tactically,things don't always work out the way you planned.
It's a weird old world, Bio. Morningside votes Labour... Who'd have thunk it? It may be down to tactical voting but it's still something I thought I'd never see.Tactical voting is always a dodgy business. I reckon that in most cases you should probably just vote for the party you want to see in government.
tris and his fellow natsThe sno lost overall majority hoorayany idea of a referendum is dead dead deadHurrah for a very very long time hurrahAs the snp up useless votes the Torys benefit and re-emerge from political oblivionlater many snp voters will cross back over to The Torys .Labour poor old Labour an IndependentScottish Labour Party must be one way forward The Union our sacred Union is once againConfirmed as safe for that we must be grateful
Niko In a system devised by the Liberal Democrats and Labour to give them a permanent coalition, the SNP fell short of a majority by 2 seats.Yes, they lost some seats. After 9 years, is this surprising?You need to keep in mind though, that the Greens who now have 6 seats, are pro indy. So an indy majority in parliament. You can't guarantee that there won't be a referendum.The Liberals did well, and personal win by Willie Rennie was spectacular, although for the life of me I can't imagine why. Utterly bemusing.I'm a bit scared by the fact that so many people thought it was a good idea to vote for the pain and suffering that is the Tories hae brought on all of the UK. But congratulations to Ruth, nonetheless.Hearty congratulations to the Greens. Another real success story. And not a single iota of commiseration for the buffoon Coburn. As for Kezia. Ouch.The pro indy sentiment in Scotland may be at around 50% + or - a point or two. The unfortunate thing for Labour is that that 50% is largely in the traditional working class constituencies ie theirs.In short, like it or not, pro or anti, in their heartlands Labour is on the wrong side of the argument.
Floated this on Craig Murray's blog.What about creating a new party with a manifesto that mirrors the SNP manifesto and only have it stand on the list in areas where it is expected the SNP will do very poorly due to large constituency vote in favour.Would this be legal or feasible?
Labour tried it with the Co-operative Party. That was illegal. We have enough fringe pro indy parties. Just get over this result, regroup, and soldier on. We have councils next year, and Westminster in a few years time.I expect the Brexit turnout to be extremely low here. Its not going to trigger anything but apathy.
Illegal in my opinion. But it;'s an interesting idea, and I'm not a lawyer.I tend to take the second Anon's attitude that we learn lessons form what went on... remembering once again that in a system designed to make coalition governments the SNP came within two seats of a majority.They have twice as many seats as their nearest rivals. It's a fantastic victory, just not the one the opinion polls forecast... but WOS did!Agreed. Apart from a few old racists I've heard little interest in Cameron's referendum.
Haven't seen a thing from the Really Interesting Studenty Enterprise mob all day. Are they drowning their sorrows or quietly sharpening the knives ?
If I were them I'd have spent the day drunk.Mustn't mock. They are young and radical.Some of them will grow up and take ermine... Only joking we'll be well away by the time they grow up.
I wonder what the Scottish Christian Party's position is on fracking
Convoluted, I wouldn't wonder, and much dependent on whether it's the Sabbath and whether dancing is involved!!
trisThe problem is whilst the nats are insanely delirious happywith Labours rout in Scotland the fact is the resurgent Torys make any fanciful idea of Independence less likely.Its like the snp cutting of the Union hydra head one getsdecapitated only for another to regenerate Only Heraclesmanaged to kill the Hydra and Nicola is just a girl so the omensdont look good for her.You nats charge onto the battlefield slaying all before youthe facts are you are winning on the wrong battlefield againstthe wrong enemy.Just like Don Quixote the nats tilt at the Labour windmillsand have only made the Unionists stronger and stronger you wona reduced holyrood but the real holy grail is further away thanever.Some say this suits the snp leadership it means they can continueto take as much from the public purse until they retire in theprivate sector using their public gained knowledge to gain wellpaid positions.All they have to do is wave the Flag Of Independence get you lotall fired up whooping and a hollering harvest your votes and thenback to stealing some more public cash. You won victory I wont say a pyrrhic one but certainly a lesser one the high tide of the snp seems to have been reached for this generation. Still one things is for sure the snp big wigs are gettingmore and more personal Gold both Scottish and English
Labour need to learn a lesson Niko, one which they still haven't. They are blaming going to the left, " aiming at the 45" , instead of going right, "aiming at the 55".I've never voted Labour, but the election of Corbyn as leader, by the membership, clearly shows real Labour supporters want a left of centre party.A truly independent Scottish party, with left of centre policies, with a Scottish angle; affiliated to the Westminster party, but in no way controlled by it, could rebuild its self into a party people would vote for; it'll take a generation or two, that is to say about ten years in political terms, and they really need to get rid of the old guard zoomers and careerists.
I'm not convinced that the thinking nats (yes, there are some) are particularly delirious Niko.I make no bones about having taken a considerable amount of pleasure in the apparent loss of the likes of Kelly and Baillie, only to find that voting them out hadn't in fact got rid of them.I'm not sure where you get your information about the big wigs, some of whom are personal friends of mine, getting rich, like maybe Blair or Darling, but I'd be interested, and I'm sure they would be too, in what evidence you have of that.I'm seriously concerned about the huge movement from Labour to Tory. I suspect that some Tories, happy with Blairism and the likes of Darling and Brown have been worried by the appearance of Corbyn, and the uncertainty of Labour in the future. Kez may like to think she's her own person, but frankly I doubt it.Of course you can't take away from Ruth as a leader. She struck the right note. For the leafy suburbs and the border regions, her sitting on a tank threatening to blow the queen's enemies to kingdom come has gone down well.The victory of the SNP is as I've said, a good one. They have 63 seats. Their nearest rivals have 31.Has that ever happened before? Has it happened in London?It's not as good as the polls showed it to be, but it is still good.In their heyday Labour needed the Liberals to get a majority. I'm not sure the number of seats they had in the first parliament, but it wasn't 63.
Jim: It's incredible that after the referendum Curran said that they had to get out and talk to their core vote. They had to show them that they cared, that they were for them. They needed to move to the left. Then she backed the ultra right wing Murphy for his disastrous leadership... remember, 'I'm just a regular bloke, I like irn bru and fitba' and I think everyone should be allowed to get ratted at the match... I've changed, I'm not a unionist'.
JimminyA independent Scottish Labour party affiliated but notsubservient to the larger English Labour party could bea way back...but Id like to see genuine policies to endinequality . And as for careerists and spads this is the curse of all political parties including the snp all we got to do is wait and see.see the Blairites are up in arms at what in the end wasoverall far from a disaster for Labour.Whats the point of having a Labour Government imposingConservative policies why dont they just feck and jointhe Torys or form a different party which they can call theThe Blair Party if they like...When Militant members behaved like them they were expelledfrom the Labour party seems like the right precedent to me.
Can't argue with that.
Nothing to argue with there, but no one in Labour in Scotland has the guts to do it. Its easy to imagine Sarwar, Baillie, Gray and Kez on the bridge of the Titanic saying to one another, "I tell you, this ship is not sinking".
You're bang on there Niko. I was thinking of a post along the lines of what's next for Labour?And you kinda stole my thunder.I've always said that Labour in Scotland is not really that bad.Except at the bottom end, they like most others, have their fiddlers... But essentially folk like Lamont and Gray HAD their hearts in teh right place.Two things wrong. They were told what to do by London (Ms Lamont confirmed) and they developed a hatred for the SNP that totally overtook their whole being.As I said, the main staunch Labour areas of Dundee and Glasgow are both serious YES cities. Labour chose, under the guidance of Brown and Darling, to be staunch NO.Labour's core vote see that as a betrayal. Then they stood on the same platform with Tories. Jeeeeez, how could they not have seen it coming.But yeah... as PS says... who's gonna have the guts to say Enough.
spend your whole life fighting nats and thenthey agree with you ...Life is just so unfair......throws poison pen down in disgust,
Bless you. Munguin give Niko a hug.Trouble is we're just jolly nice peeps, and when we see someone hurting becasue they've lost what they always fought for, we kinda feel ... protective.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/05/bbc-spread-hatred/Niko. You should read this. It is relevant to what is happening with the SNP, but equally, he goes on to talk about the rabid hatred of the BBC for Labour under Corbyn in particular.We know they depend for their money and charter on Whippingdale, but if they could take their heads out for a minute from between his cheeks, they might see what complete fools they are making of themselves.Ruth Davidson is like Leicester City. Jings.Why don;t they just make her queen and be done... and send Corbyn and Sturgeon to the Tower.
Do please all google the 6 Greens elected + Yes Scotland. I think we may indeed have a yes majority. Andy Wightman/Ross Greer/Alison Johnstone/John Finnie/Mark Ruskell & Patrick Harvie.We should not be getting all tribal with them, for they are indeed a found tribe. The majority of them have active pro indy CV's.I can see the light.Bear in mind that it was the people who made Yes, not the SNP. They may have joined the SNP after the 18th. But many joined the Greens too. Nicola is right. It is for the people to decide. And they have elected a strong YES Scotland majority. And its under the radar too. We are headed in the right direction.Alba Gu BrathSaor Alba.
More clearly than ever before: it’s us or them. Pro-indy or anti-indy. For Scotland or against it. The constitution will be centre-stage for the next five years, unless brexit brings indy2 quicker.
DanThats very fair minded nothing to fear from youis there..whats your opine on Nicola stating even IF ? Independencewas voted for there would be no obstruction to anotherUnionist referendum to rejoin the Union
Certainly true that the SNP don't own YES. They are just the predominant party. It was a people thing.I think they are right to not have a coalition but I hope some informal arrangement can be arrived at.I see no reason why, if it is the people who say so, that a referendum on rejoining the UK or on any other constitutional manner can't happen.I suspect that there are other things that we might like to change in Scotland I we had the right to do so.
Tris,could you let me know your email address again please (can't find it anywhere :-(Cheers minbraco
Hi Braco:Sure. firstname.lastname@example.org:)
Thanks Tris,just sent you something.braco
During the referendum,I knew a number of people who were No before the referendum,never engaged with any of the arguments and voted No on the day.These were people who viewed independence as a threat to their income/lifestyle and I suspect many of whom were Tory light and voted for Blair's Labour party have now gone home to the Tories.They definitely see the Tories as less threat than the SNP and Project Fear simply reinforced the beliefs they already held.This brand of Tory doesn't care about King/Queen and country but only about who will protect their lifestyle best and will vote accordingly.If the SNP want to win these voters over,they will have a hard time ahead because Westminster will always ensure that Scotland's economy lags behind England's (London control the purse strings).Our only hope is to energise working people by showing them that we can make a difference here in Scotland to ordinary people's lives through better education and care as well as doing what we can to give people decent jobs.In itself a very worthwhile aim without any political connotations.The question for Davidson is,will these new voters continue to support them when they see policies which will result in them having to pay for education,health and all the other things currently funded through public taxation?The more wealthy,probably yes but those who were conned by the single anti-independence message,who knows.
Absolutely agree about the Tory Lite faction.As long as the Blairites held sway these hard right Labourites were safe, but when Corbyn and socialism came along, they went back to the Tories. Corbyn must be the reason. 2015, the Tories have their worst result ever. 2016, their best result ever. What's changed?Labour got rid of Tory Lite London management. I don't think anyone has any confidence in "I'm my own person" Kezia to choose how much sugar she takes in her tea.Ruth fought a good campaign Tory Lite people. There's no doubt about that.All the red white and blue, tanks, nuclear weapons, low taxes, etc appealed to them.
I'm not so sure that was what happened.We have been polling high 50's all year. The week before the election we get lots of stories about second preference voting, that stupid front page as if we had won already ( and which was why Neil Kinnock made his millions in Brussels instead of American lecture tours ), and crucially the RDP aided by the Truth Ministry which made this election about Independence.We campaigned for months on our record. We are a good and competent government. At conference Indy was only mentioned for the benefit of the troops, not the voters. We are the most competent administration I have ever encountered in any public office in my 50 odds years on the planet.I believe the factors above frightened that group of voters who voted SNP - and I think I read that was around 15% of the votes? - but were not pro Indy. And on the day they voted for the tank commander. Especially once it was bigged up that the RDP ( I'm going to use Ruth Davidsons Unionist Party R-DUP from now on ) could well be elected ahead of useless incompetent corrupt Labour. In my ward they got a high vote, yet they had nobody on any polling station, and I never once saw any evidence of a canvass by them in the last 6 months when we were out twice a week. How could they GOTV? I'm sure we knew more of their voters than they did.I agree many people are selfish. Anyone who has ever driven in Edinburgh knows that. But every effort needs to go into explaining to them just how they will benefit from independence - and they most surely will. It is in their selfish interest for Scotland to be free. And it is a shame they have been sidelined so far.Alba Gu BrathSaor Alba
Well SA, I guess you could be right, or, and I suspect that this is the case, it could be a mixture of a lot of different factors.Certainly according to Wings, who usually gets these things right, the SNP polled better than it has ever done. "In almost every sense, the election result is brilliant news for Nicola Sturgeon’s party. They increased their vote to record levels despite having been in power for nine years (becoming the first party to ever get a million votes in a Holyrood election), ..."I certainly agree that the government is competent. When you compare it with the grown ups in London, STUNNINGLY competent. Their own backbenchers are making them U-turn on unaccompanied children refugees, on talks with the English health service and junior doctors and on English forced acadamisation of schools, not to mention a hasty revision of Dave's opinion of Trump.And the Labour party in Scotland are spinning around like peeries (is that how you spell it?).
Anyway, back to reality. O/T but very interesting. And I never heard it mentioned on the MOT I was forced to listen to on a return drive to Yes Town Of Dundee today.http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/protest-movement-threatens-ttip-transatlantic-trade-deal-a-1091088.htmlSaor Alba
Thank goodness.Mind you, I imagine that it the Uk leaves the EU, Britain will sign up for something like that, because the president will tell them to. And let's be honest there's probably money to be made on boards of directors for out of work politicians (David, George, etc when Brexit happens).I can imagine why no one bothers to protest here. After all when people do the BBC and most of the Tory papers pretty much ignore it and it all blows over.
The really interesting results where the constituencies where the SNP won, but came close to losing to the Tories. I'm thinking the Tayside, we saw huge 12.5% swings to #TeamRuth there, very much pushing those former heartlands back into contention for the ScotCons.