NAIVE FOREIGN POLICY IN THE NEAR EAST OR JUST PROTECTING THE OIL COMPANIES' INTERESTS

Cameron with interim prime minister of Egypt

I suppose that in every job, there should be a training period at the beginning, a time during which the person learns on the job, often with the bosses eye firmly fixed on the most important decisions to be made.
In the case of the first or prime minister of a country that is a little more difficult because, in theory at least, he (or she) is the big cheese. But even this republican blog accepts that previous prime ministers have paid tribute to the advice given to them by the Queen, and the counsel they should be able to call upon most of all is that of the senior civil servants  from departments of government. The professionals


So whilst it is excusable that band new, squeaky clean David Cameron would want to make his mark early on foreign policy matters, it surely must have occurred to him, or to his foreign policy advisors in Downing Street or the FCO, that not only was he the first western leader to visit Cairo after the overthrow of Mubarak, but he was the only one to show any inclination to do so. It might also have occurred to him or them to wonder why that was.

King Farouk

Research, which if he didn't have the time or the wit to do, someone should have thought of, would have told him that the military has had a hold on the governance of Egypt since the overthrow of King Farouk in 1952 which it engineered with the help of the CIA. (Farouk's son was king for about a year, but as he was only 6 months old when he succeeded, it was surely Col Nassar who was calling the shots.) It was, then, very unlikely that the Army was about to give up power willingly in 2011.


So Cameron's visit to meet the new "interim" rulers (the military) was a somewhat dangerous and daring piece of foreign policy. Hailing the coming of democracy to north Africa was something over which he might have been well advised to "wait and see".


For, although there is to be an election, the military has made it clear that the new constitution should include a place in government for the military, and that that place should be shielded from any civilian oversight. 


Now, it is possible that that might be a sound idea. The relative stability of Egypt has been guaranteed over the last 60 years, possibly in part thanks to the firm hand of the military, under Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak in turn. And, in any case, we cannot judge the needs of every country by the needs of our own (as if we had any real democracy anyway). However, a state in which the military plays a role in government without any oversight of the people is not a democracy, and Cameron looks rather foolish to have hailed it as such.

Mr Hague and Mr Myers

The worrying thing is any role the FCO may have had in this piece of foreign policy. There was a time when the London FCO Arab desk might have been able to offer suitable advice about how to tread in this area. Maybe it still can and was ignored by a headstrong and none too clever Foreign Secretary (his judgement has to be called into question over his appointing his young friend and driver as a special advisor, and sharing expensive hotel bedrooms with him). Maybe there is no one left in the FCO who dare question the political masters, or maybe they just don't have the skills any more.


Whatever the reasons, Cameron's enthusiasm looks rather naive.


And as Syria explodes into civil war, there are those who are asking why Britian and France are not rushing to the aid of the "insurgents" as they did in Libya. Oh yes, the situation is more complex in Syria, and the military machine maybe stronger, but there are many similarities. The reason given for intervention in Libya was that we could not stand by and watch a dictator kill his own people. I failed to understand that at the time as we do that all  all over the world. But now it looks weaker and weaker as over 2,700 civilians including 100 children have been killed by Assad's forces.


It wouldn't be anything to do with the fact that Syria hardly has any oil worth talking about, could it?